Bond markets and mortgage rates have gotten off to a volatile start in 2023. What direction will they go in April? It’s anyone’s guess, but the odds favor that mortgage rates might improve as we move further into Spring.
The first big hurdle to mortgage rates moving lower is getting past the Employment report (April 6th) and then the CPI report (April 12th).
Opportunities And Risks For April 2023 Mortgage Rates
Like every other month since last Spring, the biggest risk to mortgage rates is inflation; however, it seems like inflation is improving, and the markets are starting to recognize that. I think we have the best opportunity for lower mortgage rates since the fall when rates moved from the 7%+ range back down to the mid 5 % range.
The only way we see a sizable move lower is if the Employment report and CPI report come in at or below expectations. If they do, I think rates improve from these levels.
How low could rates go in April 2023?
Last summer, conforming rates were in the mid to high 4’s, and FHA rates were low to mid 4’s. Do I think they go that low? No, at least not any time soon but I do think we could see conforming rates move below 5% if the economic reports are favorable to mortgage rates.
April 2023 Mortgage Rate Forecast For California
Here are our latest April 2023 mortgage rate forecasts for California:
- 30-year fixed rates below 5.375%
- 20-year fixed rates below 5.25%
- 15-year fixed rates below 5.00%
Our April 2023 mortgage rate forecast is based on properties in California, a loan amount of $350,000, a primary home, excellent credit (740 or higher credit score), and a Loan-To-Value ratio below 60% (purchase transactions).
We may see days in which mortgage rates spike higher; however, overall, we believe there will be opportunities to lock a mortgage rate at or below these levels throughout the month of April.
Mortgage Rate And Payment Chart
Here is a quick reference guide to April 2023 mortgage rate possibilities in California (these are not quotes, just examples) and the payments associated with each level based on various conforming loan amounts. See our important disclosure below.
30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage
| Term | Loan Amount | Mortgage Rate | Payment |
| 30-year fixed | $322,000 | 4.875% | $1,704.05 |
| 30-year fixed | $422,000 | 4.875% | $2,233.26 |
| 30-year fixed | $522,000 | 4.875% | $2,762.47 |
| 30-year fixed | $622,000 | 4.875% | $3,291.68 |
20-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage
| Term | Loan Amount | Mortgage Rate | Payment |
| 20-year fixed | $322,000 | 4.625% | $2,058.92 |
| 20-year fixed | $422,000 | 4.625% | $2,698.34 |
| 20-year fixed | $522,000 | 4.625% | $3,337.76 |
| 20-year fixed | $622,000 | 4.625% | $3,977.17 |
15-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage
| Term | Loan Amount | Mortgage Rate | Payment |
| 15-year fixed | $322,000 | 4.375% | $2,442.76 |
| 15-year fixed | $422,000 | 4.375% | $3,201.08 |
| 15-year fixed | $522,000 | 4.375% | $3,960.00 |
| 15-year fixed | $622,000 | 4.375% | $4,718.62 |
Important disclosure: The above is not a mortgage rate quote, nor is it an offer to lend. It’s only a generic example of various mortgage rates, loan amounts, and payments. Our mortgage rate chart is meant to educate and inform our readers. The current mortgage rate market may be higher or lower than the examples listed in these mortgage rate charts. Also, mortgage rates can and often do adjust multiple times a day.
California Mortgage Calculator
Using a mortgage calculator to figure out your monthly payment is an essential part of buying a home in California or refinancing a current mortgage. Use our free mortgage calculator to help you determine what you can afford.
With our online mortgage calculator, you can also factor in your property tax amount along with your annual homeowner’s insurance amount with your monthly mortgage payment.
Our California mortgage calculator is free and easy to use.
And our mortgage calculator is especially helpful for those who want to impound their property taxes and property insurance into their monthly mortgage payment. If you have any questions about or California mortgage calculator, please don’t hesitate to ask.
Update Mortgage Guidelines April 2023
No updates.
Economic Calendar For April 2023
Here we cover the daily economic events that might impact April 2023 mortgage rates. After the report comes out, we’ll update the post with that information and comment on if there is a potential impact on the Mortgage-Backed Securities market and consumer mortgage rates.
To start things off, we have the following report:
- ISM Manufacturing report
- ADP Employment
- ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
- BLS Employment report
Thursday – April 27th:
- Unemployment Claims: Weekly unemployment claims came in at 230,000, and continued claims came in at 1,858,000.
- GDP Advance Q1: After last quarter’s 2.6%, the market was expecting 2003 Q1 GDP to come in at 2.00%; however, their report came in at 1.1%.
Wednesday – April 26th:
- MBA Purchase Index: The MBA Purchase Index came in at 169.1.
- MBA Refinance Index: The MBA Refinance Index came in at 457.6.
Thursday – April 21st:
- Unemployment Claims: Weekly unemployment claims came in at 245,000, and continued claims came in at 1,865,000.
Wednesday – April 19th:
- MBA Purchase Index: The MBA Purchase Index came in at 161.6.
- MBA Refinance Index: The MBA Refinance Index came in at 449.8.
Friday – April 14th:
- Retail Sales: The Retail Sales report came in at -1.0%, and the market was expecting -0.4%.
Thursday – April 13th:
- Unemployment Claims: Weekly unemployment claims came in at 239,000, and continued claims came in at 1,810,000.
Wednesday – April 12th:
- MBA Purchase Index: The MBA Purchase Index came in at 179.6.
- MBA Refinance Index: The MBA Refinance Index came in at 477.72.
- CPI Report: Core CPI y/y came in at 5.6%, and m/m came in at 0.4%, both in line with market expectations.
Friday – April 7th:
- Employment Report: The market was expecting 239,000 jobs, and the report showed 236,000 jobs created. The unemployment rate came in at 3.50%, and earnings came in at $0.3
Thursday – April 6th:
- Unemployment Claims: Weekly unemployment claims came in at 228,000, and continued claims came in at 1,823,000.
Wednesday – April 5th:
- MBA Purchase Index: The MBA Purchase Index came in at 154.4.
- MBA Refinance Index: The MBA Refinance Index came in at 437.9.
- ADP Jobs Report: The market was expecting 200,000 jobs created, and the report came in at 242,000 jobs created. The report had no impact on April 2023 mortgage rates.
- ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: The monthly report came in at 54.5, and the market was expecting the report to come in at 51.2.
Monday – April 3rd
- ISM Manufacturing PMI: Last month, the ISM Manufacturing PMI report came in at 47.7, and this month it came in at 46.3.
April 2023 Mortgage Rates In California – Averages
We’ll update this section as we move further into April; however, to start off the month, we’re seeing the following averages.
- The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 5.50%.
- The average 20-year fixed mortgage rate is 5.375%
- The average 15-year fixed rate is 5.125%.
This is an average of the April 2023 mortgage rates of everyone we’re seeing, from less-than-perfect credit to excellent credit. Please keep in mind that mortgage rates adjust daily, sometimes multiple times during the day. For a mortgage quote specific to your situation, please be sure to contact us directly.
Mortgage-Backed Securities & Treasury Snapshot
April 3rd – April 14th:
Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 4.5 started trading at the 98.28 level, and the UMBS 5.0 coupon started at the 99.95 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the 3.41% level.
At the end of the week, Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 4.5 was at the 97.61 level, and the UMBS 5.0 coupon was nearing the 99.34 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the 3.52% level.
April 17th – April 28th:
Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 4.5 started trading at the 96.98 level, and the UMBS 5.0 coupon started at the 98.96 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the 3.60% level.
At the end of the week, Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 4.5 was at the 97.92 level, and the UMBS 5.0 coupon was nearing the 99.41 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the 3.43% level.
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