August 2020 News And Events

August 2020 mortgage rates in California – refinance and purchase transactions. 

As with previous months, the biggest risk for mortgage rates right now is a turnaround in the pandemic.

A viable vaccine and/or therapeutic treatment announcement would send cause a massive wave of selling in the bond markets and mortgage rates would move dramatically higher. With California mortgage rates at their all-time lows, another risk would be the amount of applications a lender is receiving.

Most lenders are very near or at capacity in terms of processing times for mortgage loan applications. Therefore mortgage lenders may start increasing mortgage rates no matter how well the bond market is doing. By raising mortgage rates lenders hope to reduce the number of mortgage loan applications they are receiving.

For over 15 years my team and I have offered low rate Conventional, FHA and Jumbo fixed-rate mortgages throughout California. Low mortgage rates, fast closings, and exceptional service. If you are looking to purchase a home or refinance a current mortgage this summer please be sure to contact me directly (you can use the contact form below or call my direct number: 1-800-550-5538) for a no-cost/no-obligation quote.

California Mortgage Calculator

Using a mortgage calculator to figure out your monthly payment is an essential part of buying a home in California or refinancing a current mortgage. Use our free mortgage calculator to help you determine what you can afford. With our online mortgage calculator, you can also factor in your property tax amount along with your annual homeowner’s insurance amount with your monthly mortgage payment.

Advanced Mortgage Calculator For City Pages

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Our California mortgage calculator is free and easy to use.

And our mortgage calculator is especially helpful for those who want to impound their property taxes and property insurance into their monthly mortgage payment. If you have any questions about or California mortgage calculator please don’t hesitate to ask.

August 2020 Mortgage Rate Forecast For California

Here are our August 2020 mortgage rate forecasts for California:

• 30-year fixed rates below 3.125%
• 20-year fixed rates below 3.00%
• 15-year fixed rates below 2.75%

This is based on properties in California, a loan amount of $375,000, a primary home, excellent credit (740 or higher credit score), and a Loan-To-Value ratio below 75%. We may see days in which mortgage rates spike higher however overall we believe there will be opportunities to lock a mortgage rate at or below these levels throughout the month of August.

August 2020 Mortgage Rate Chart:

Here is a quick reference guide to August 2020 mortgage rate possibilities in California (these are not quotes; just examples) and the payments associated with each level based on various conforming loan amounts. See our important disclosure below.

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage:

20-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage:

15-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage:

Important Disclosure For August 2020 California mortgage rates: The above is not a mortgage rate quote; nor is it an offer to lend. It’s only a generic example of various mortgage rates, loan amounts, and payments. Our mortgage rate chart is meant to educate and inform our readers. The current market may be higher or lower than the examples listed in these rate charts. Also; mortgage rates can and often do adjust multiple times a day. 

Coronavirus and California Mortgage Rates – August 2020

For most of 2020, the Coronavirus has had a big impact on mortgage rates.

Because of the slowing economy mortgages rates in California (and throughout the country) and moved to record lows. This trend, of low mortgage rates, should continue in August. We are not predicting “new” record lows for mortgage rates but just a continuation of low mortgage rates throughout the month.

August 2020 Mortgage Rate FAQ’s

Here we answer some popular questions about mortgage rates in California. For additional mortgage information visit our Scoop.it! page.

Will Mortgage Rates Go Lower In August?

It’s unlikely mortgage rates in August will set a new record low. Mortgage lenders already have plenty of business so there is no incentive to dramatically improve mortgage rates.

How Do I Get The Best Refinance Mortgage Rate?

To obtain the best refinance mortgage rate you need to work with a top-rated mortgage broker (or lender). Also, you’ll want to pick a Loan Officer with at least 5+ years of experience and someone who has top online reviews with Zillow, Yelp, Google etc.

Experienced and knowledgeable Loan Officers are going to be your best ally when it comes to getting the best refinance mortgage rate.

Lastly, ask questions – lots of questions!

When you ask questions you’ll be better informed and when you are better informed you’re in a better positing to get the best possible mortgage rate.

Did The Government Increase Mortgage Rates In August?

Yes, they did.

On August 12th, 2020 Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA is the government agency that runs Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) increased its regulatory fee by .50% (they more than doubled it). It’s important to know that they did not increase rates by .50% (they don’t control mortgage rates). What they did was increase the fee they charge mortgage lenders by a half percent (.50%).

Since it now costs mortgage lenders more money to originate new refinance mortgage loans that cost will be passed along to homeowners in the form of higher mortgage rates. So for every 100,000 borrowed that’s an extra $500 in cost the mortgage lender incurs.

Market reaction among mortgage lenders was swift and loud. There is no reason the government should be charging homeowners more money to obtain record-low mortgage rates. There is already a significant push to have that fee reduced or completely removed. We’ll keep you posted as the situation continues to develop.

Update Mortgage Guidelines August 2020

Heading into the month there are no major changes to mortgage guidelines. The biggest thing continues to be the guidelines for self-employed people; especially those in the restaurant and retail sector.

Economic Calendar For August 2020

Here we cover the daily economic events that might impact mortgage rates. After the report comes out we’ll update the post with that information and comment on if there is a potential impact on the Mortgage-Backed Securities market and consumer mortgage rates.

The first week of the month will be important for July 2020 mortgage rates.

To start things off we have:

• ISM Manufacturing report
• ADP Employment
• ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
• BLS Employment report

Friday – August 28th:

• Core PCE Inflation: The Core PCE Inflation report came in at 1.3% (just above expectations).
• Consumer Sentiment: The Consumer Sentiment report came in just above last month’s reading of 72.8 (74.1).

Thursday – August 27th:

• Weekly Jobless Claims: Weekly jobless claims decreased this week however they still remain above 1 million claims (1,006,000). Continued claims came in at 14,535,000.
• GDP Prelim Q2: The GDP Preliminary Q2 report came in at -31.7%.

Wednesday – August 26th:

• Mortgage Market Index: The weekly report came in at 770.6 (last week it was 824.5). The Purchase Index increased from 308.9 vs 310.2. The Refinance Index came in at 3809.7 vs last week’s report of 3423.0.
• Durable Goods: The Durable Goods report came in at 11.2 and mortgage rates were not impacted by this report.

Tuesday – August 25th:

• Consumer Confidence: Last month the Consumer Confidence report came in at 92.6 and this month the report came in at 84.8.
• New Home Sales: There was a huge jump in New Home Sales in July. The previous month it came in at 776,000 units (annual run rate) and this report showed an annual run rate of 901,000 . That’s a huge jump.

Friday – August 21st:

• PMI-Composite: Last month the PMI Composite came in at 50.3 and this month it came in at 54.7.
• Existing Home Sales: Existing Home Sales surged in July. Last month the reading came in at 20.7 and this month it came in at 24.7.

Thursday – August 20th:

• Philly Fed Index: The Philly Fed Index came in lower than last month – 17.2 vs. 24.1.
• Weekly Unemployment Claims: The weekly Unemployment Claims report moved back above 1 million claims this week (1,106,000 claims) and continued claims remained at 14,844,000. Mortgage rates were not impacted by the report.

Wednesday – August 19th:

• Mortgage Market Index: The Mortgage Market Index came in at 824.5 (last week it was 852.8). There wasn’t a significant impact to mortgage rates post report.

Tuesday – August 18th:

• Housing Starts: Last month the housing starts report came in at 1,186,000 units (annual pace) and this month the housing starts report came in at 1,496,000 units (annual pace).

Monday – August 17th:

• NY Fed Manufacturing: The New York Fed Manufacturing report came in at 3.7; well below expectations. Although this is a regional report it’s a positive for mortgage rates.
• NAHB Housing Market Index: The NAHB Housing Market Index came in at 78 and the market was expecting 73. This report has no impact on mortgage rates.

Friday – August 14th:

• Retail Sales: This month’s Retail Sales report was worse than expected. The market was expecting 1.9% growth and the report only showed 1.2% growth. Last month’s report showed a 7.5% growth rate. There was no impact on mortgage rates post report.
• Consumer Sentiment: Expectations are for a reading of 72.0.
• 5y And 1y Inflation Outlook: Last month the 5y inflation outlook came in at 2.6% and the 1y inflation outlook came in at 3.0.

Thursday – August 13th:

• Jobless Claims: Last week’s Jobless Claims came in at 1,186,000 claims and this week it came in at 963,000. It’s good news for the economy as it’s been months since we’ve seen the weekly jobless claims number under 1,000,000 claims. Continued claims dropped from 16,107,000 to 15,486,000. Mortgage rates were not significantly impacted.

Wednesday – August 12th:

• Mortgage Market Index: The Mortgage Market Index increased again this week from 798.8 to 852.8. Refinance applications jumped significantly; last week it was 3688.1 and this week it’s 4025.0.
• Core Consumer Price Index: Like the CPP report yesterday the Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased this month from a gain of 1.2% to a gain of 1.6%. This had a negative impact on the bond market as well as mortgage rates.

Tuesday – August 11th:

• Core Producer Prices: For the Core Producer Prices report (CPP) the market was expecting a 0.0% increase (year/year) however the report showed a 0.3% increase.

Friday – August 7th:

• Monthly Jobs Report: Expectations are for just under 1,500,000 jobs created with average earnings declining -0.5%. The market is expecting an unemployment rate of 10.5% (down from last month’s unemployment rate of 11.1%). With the week ADP report it appears that the monthly jobs report could come in well under 1,000,000 jobs created. If so there is a chance that the bonds will react positively as well as mortgage rates. (UPDATE) This morning’s report came in at 1,462,000 jobs created and the unemployment rate came in at 10.2%. After the ADP Employment report some market analysts were expecting the jobs report to come in under 1,000,000. Average Hours Worked cames in at 34.5 which is an increase from last month. Also wages increased  (0.2). Post report bonds rallied however there was no immediate impact on mortgage rates.
• Wholesale Inventories: The market is expecting a decline of -2.0%
• Consumer Credit: The market is expecting the June Consumer Credit report to show expansion.

Thursday – August 6th:

• Weekly Jobless Claims: Investors and analysts are expecting weekly jobless claims to come in at 1.4 million and continued claims to come in at 16.8 million. The report came in lower than last week; 1,186,000 claims and continued claims came in at 16,107,000. Somewhat good news for the economy however the continued claims are still very high.
• Challenger Layoffs: A huge jump in the planned layoffs. The Challenger reported 262,649 job cuts which is a dramatic increase from the last report (170,219). There was no impact on mortgage rates after the report came out.

Wednesday – August 5th:

• Mortgage Market Index: Last week the Mortgage Market Index (MMI) came in at 841.9 and this week it came in at 798.8. There was no impact to mortgage rates post report.
• ADP Employment Report: Last month the ADP Employment report came in at 2,369,000 jobs created and this month investors and analysts are expecting the report to show 1,500,000 jobs created. However just because the market was expecting a good jobs report doesn’t mean it’s going to happen. This morning the report came out and showed only 167,000 jobs created. A big disappointment which is a positive for mortgage rates however that wasn’t the case today.
• ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Expectations are for the report to come in at 66.0 and the report came in at 67.2.

Monday – August 3rd:

• ISM Manufacturing PMI: This month’s report came in higher than expected; 54.2 vs expectations of 53.6. There was no immediate impact on mortgage rates.

Mortgage Rates And The Monthly Jobs Report

At the end of the first week of August is the monthly jobs report. This report can have an impact on California mortgage rates. Check back on August 7th to see where the report came in and if there was an impact on the market.

The July jobs report was good; nearly 1.5 million jobs created, hours increased and wages increased. Will, it hurt or help mortgage rates?

Probably not.

Right now the biggest influencer of mortgage rates is the Coronavirus. If things start to get dramatically worse you might see some improvements to mortgage rates. But don’t expect a huge improvement since mortgage rates are already at their all-time lows.

If a Vaccine or a therapeutic drug gets announced expect the bond market to sell off and mortgage rates will move significantly higher.

August 2020 Mortgage Rate Average In California

We’ll update this section as we move further into August however to start off the month we’re seeing the following averages.

• The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in California is 2.875%.
• The average 20-year fixed mortgage rate is 2.75%.
• The average 15-year fixed rate in California is 2.50%.

This is an average of everyone we’re seeing; from less than perfect credit to excellent credit. Please keep in mind that September 2020 mortgage rates adjust daily; sometimes multiple times during a day. For a mortgage quote specific to your situation please be sure to contact us directly.

Mortgage-Backed Securities & Treasury Snapshot

August 24th – August 31st:

Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 2.0 started the week at the 103.17 level and the UMBS 2.5 coupon started at the 105.30 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the .64% level to start the week.

At the end of the week, Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 2.0 was at the 103.14 level and the UMBS 2.5 coupon was nearing the 105.81 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at .70%.

August 17th – August 21st

Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 2.0 started the week at the 103.31 level and the UMBS 2.5 coupon started at the 105.16 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the .62% level to start the week.

At the end of the week, Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 2.0 was at the 103.25 level and the UMBS 2.5 coupon was nearing the 105.81 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at .63%.

August 10th – August 14th:

Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 2.0 started the week at the 103.64 level and the UMBS 2.5 coupon started at the 105.38 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the .58% level to start the week.

At the end of the week, Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 2.0 was at the 102.92 level and the UMBS 2.5 coupon was nearing the 104.81 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at .70%.

August 3rd – August 7th:

Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 2.0 started the week at the 103.62 level and the UMBS 2.5 coupon started at the 105.11 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the .57% level to start the week.

At the end of the week, Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 2.0 was at the 103.55 level and the UMBS 2.5 coupon was nearing the 105.27 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at .56%.