August 2023, news and events that might impact mortgage rates include the employment and CPI report, along with comments from the various Fed presidents about the direction of the economy and inflation.

The rate of inflation has significantly moved lower in 2023, but it’s not moving fast enough. Will that change in August, or might we see a slight uptick, as estimates suggest?

Check Today’s California Mortgage Rates

Opportunities And Risks For August 2023 Mortgage Rates

With summer winding down and kids across the country getting ready to start school, the biggest question investors will have is when will the Fed be happy with the direction of the monthly CPI report.

At this point, it appears the Fed will only be happy when the Core CPI actually hits 2.00%, and that will not happen in 2023. As with any other month in 2023 (and 2022, for that matter), if inflation is hotter than expected, mortgage rates run the risk of going much higher. There isn’t a lot of opportunity for mortgage rates to move lower unless something unexpected happens.

August 2023 Mortgage Rate Forecast For California

Here are our latest August 2023 mortgage rate forecasts for California:

30-year fixed rates below 6.50%
20-year fixed rates below 6.375%
15-year fixed rates below 6.00%

Our August 2023 mortgage rate forecast is based on properties in California, a loan amount of $350,000, a primary home, excellent credit (780 or higher credit score), and a Loan-To-Value ratio below 60% (purchase transactions).

We may see days in which mortgage rates spike higher; however, overall, we believe there will be opportunities to lock a mortgage rate at or below these levels throughout the month of August.

Mortgage Rate And Payment Chart

Here is a quick reference guide to August 2023 mortgage rate possibilities in California (these are not quotes, just examples) and the payments associated with each level based on various conforming loan amounts. See our important disclosure below.

30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage

Term	Loan Amount	Mortgage Rate	Payment
30-year fixed	$250,000	7.00%	$1,663.26
30-year fixed	$350,000	7.00%	$2,328.56
30-year fixed	$450,000	7.00%	$2,993.86
30-year fixed	$550,000	7.00%	$3,659.16

20-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage

Term	Loan Amount	Mortgage Rate	Payment
20-year fixed	$250,000	6.75%	$1,900.91
20-year fixed	$350,000	6.75%	$2,661.27
20-year fixed	$450,000	6.75%	$3,421.64
20-year fixed	$550,000	6.75%	$4,182.00

15-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage

Term	Loan Amount	Mortgage Rate	Payment
15-year fixed	$250,000	6.50%	$2,177.77
15-year fixed	$350,000	6.50%	$3,048.88
15-year fixed	$450,000	6.50%	$3,919.98
15-year fixed	$550,000	6.50%	$4,791.09

Important disclosure: The above is not a mortgage rate quote, nor is it an offer to lend. It’s only a generic example of various mortgage rates, loan amounts, and payments. Our mortgage rate chart is meant to educate and inform our readers. The current mortgage rate market may be higher or lower than the examples listed in these mortgage rate charts. Also, mortgage rates can and often do adjust multiple times a day.

California Mortgage Calculator

Using a mortgage calculator to figure out your monthly payment is an essential part of buying a home in California or refinancing a current mortgage. Use our free mortgage calculator to help you determine what you can afford.

With our online mortgage calculator, you can also factor in your property tax amount along with your annual homeowner’s insurance amount with your monthly mortgage payment.

Our California mortgage calculator is free and easy to use.

And our mortgage calculator is especially helpful for those who want to impound their property taxes and property insurance into their monthly mortgage payment. If you have any questions about or California mortgage calculator, please don’t hesitate to ask.

Earnest Money Deposit

Have you ever wondered what an earnest money deposit is or had specific questions about making an earnest money deposit? If the answer is “yes,” you’ll want to read my recent post about what an earnest money deposit is and all you need to know about making the deposit once your offer has been accepted.

Government-Backed Mortgages

Did you know there are certain types of mortgages that the US government backs (aka guarantees)? I recently wrote a post about the various types of government-backed mortgages and how to qualify for one.

Economic Calendar For August 2023

Here we cover the daily economic events that might impact August 2023 mortgage rates. After the report comes out, we’ll update the post with that information and comment on if there is a potential impact on the Mortgage-Backed Securities market and consumer mortgage rates.

To start things off, we have the following report:

ISM Manufacturing report
ADP Employment
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
BLS Employment report

August 9th:

MBA Purchase Index: The MBA Purchase Index came in at 149.9.
MBA Refinance Index: The MBA Refinance Index came in at 416.1

August 4th:

Employment Report: The market was expecting the jobs report to show 200,000 jobs created; however, the report came in at 187,000 (which is a positive for August 2023 mortgage rates). The unemployment rate came in at 3.5% (the market expected 3.6%), and earnings came in at 0.4% increase (the market was expecting a 0.3% increase).

August 3rd:

Challenger Layoffs: The Challenger Layoff report came in at 23,697, which is lower than last month’s report of 40,709.
Unemployment Claims: Weekly unemployment claims came in at 227,000, and continued claims came in at 1,700,000.
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI came in at 52.7, which is a bit lower than the forecast from analysts.

August 2nd:

MBA Purchase Index: The MBA Purchase Index came in at 154.1.
MBA Refinance Index: The MBA Refinance Index came in at 433.6.
ADP Jobs Report: The market was expecting 189,000 jobs created, and the report came in at 324,000 jobs created.

August 1st:

ISM Manufacturing PMI: Last month, the ISM Manufacturing PMI report came in at 41.8, and this month it came in at 42.6. August 2023 mortgage rates were under pressure post-report.
JOLTS Job Openings: The JOLTS report came in at 9,582,000 job openings for the month of July.

Mortgage-Backed Securities & Treasury Snapshot

August 1st – May 15th:

Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 4.5 started trading at the (pending) level, and the UMBS 5.0 coupon started at the (pending) level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the (pending) level.

At the end of the week, Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 4.5 was at the (pending) level, and the UMBS 5.0 coupon was nearing the 99.20 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the (pending) level.

August 16th – August 31st:

Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 4.5 started trading at the (pending) level, and the UMBS 5.0 coupon started at the (pending) level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the (pending) level.

At the end of the week, Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 4.5 was at the (pending) level, and the UMBS 5.0 coupon was nearing the (pending) level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the (pending) level.