August 2024 mortgage rates are set to improve due to the bond market rally that started in July. How far will this rally go? It’s anyone’s guess but I don’t anticipate we’ll see huge moves like we did last month. And that’s good for mortgage rates.
When the bond market rallies too much, mortgage rates rarely follow. It’s better to see a period of stability post-rally to allow lenders time to adjust mortgage rates accordingly.
Opportunities And Risks For August 2024 Mortgage Rates
The opportunity for August 2024 mortgage rates to move lower is dependent on the inflation data coming in much weaker than the market expects. The reason is that the market is anticipating softer inflation moving forward.
A stronger employment, CPI, and/or retail sales report will reverse the recent move down in mortgage rates, especially if these reports show a significant upside surprise. Moving forward, it appears that the weekly unemployment report is going to get renewed attention as a potential early indicator of economic weakness.
K.O. Home Loan Solutions August 2024 Mortgage Rate Forecast
Here are our latest August 2024 mortgage rate forecasts for California:
- 30-year fixed rates below 6.50%
- 20-year fixed rates below 6.25%
- 15-year fixed rates below 6.125%
K.O Home Solutions August 2024 mortgage rate forecast is based on properties in California, a loan amount of $350,000, a primary home, excellent credit (740 or higher credit score), and a Loan-To-Value ratio below 60% (purchase transactions).
We may see days in which mortgage rates spike higher; however, we believe there will be opportunities to lock a mortgage rate at or below these levels throughout August.
Mortgage Rate And Payment Chart
Here is a quick reference guide to August 2024 mortgage rate possibilities in California (these are not quotes, just examples) and the payments associated with each level based on various conforming loan amounts. See our important disclosure below.
30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage
| Term | Loan Amount | Mortgage Rate | Payment |
| 30-year fixed | $205,000 | 6.50% | $1,295.74 |
| 30-year fixed | $305,000 | 6.50% | $1,927.81 |
| 30-year fixed | $405,000 | 6.50% | $2,559.88 |
| 30-year fixed | $505,000 | 6.50% | $3,191.94 |
Important disclosure: The above is not a mortgage rate quote nor an offer to lend. It’s only a generic example of various mortgage rates, loan amounts, and payments. Our mortgage rate chart is meant to educate and inform our readers. The current mortgage rate market may be higher or lower than the examples listed in these mortgage rate charts. Also, mortgage rates can and often do adjust multiple times a day.
K.O. Home Loan Solution’s Mortgage Calculator
Using a mortgage calculator to determine your monthly payment is essential to buying a home in California or refinancing a current mortgage. Our free mortgage calculator can help you determine what you can afford.
With our online mortgage calculator, you can also factor in your property tax and annual homeowner’s insurance into your monthly mortgage payment (as well as your HOA dues, if applicable).
Our California mortgage calculator is free and easy to use.
Our mortgage calculator is especially helpful for those wanting to include their property taxes and insurance in their monthly mortgage payment. If you have any questions about our California mortgage calculator, please don’t hesitate to ask.
Economic Calendar For August 2024
Here, we cover the daily economic events that might impact August 2024 mortgage rates. After the report comes out, we’ll update the post with that information and comment on whether there is a potential impact on the Mortgage-Backed Securities market and consumer mortgage rates.
To start things off, we have the following report:
- ISM Manufacturing report
- ADP Employment
- ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
- BLS Employment report
Thursday – August 22nd
- Unemployment Claims: Pending
Wednesday – August 21st
- MBA Purchase Index: The MBA Purchase Index came in at (pending).
- MBA Refinance Index: The MBA Refinance Index came in at (pending).
Thursday – August 15th
- Unemployment Claims: Weekly unemployment claims came in at 243,000, and continued claims came in at 1,867,000.
- Retail Sales: The closely watched Retail Sales report came in at 0.0%.
Wednesday – August 14th
- MBA Purchase Index: The MBA Purchase Index came in at 137.7.
- MBA Refinance Index: The MBA Refinance Index came in at 889.3.
- CORE CPI: The year/year CORE CPI reading came in at 3.2%, and the month/month CORE CPI reading came in at 0.2%. August 2024 mortgage rates remained stable post-report.
Tuesday – August 13th
- Core Producer Prices: The Core Producer Prices report came in at 0.0% (month/month) and the market was expecting the report to show a 0.2% increase.
Thursday – August 8th
- Unemployment Claims: Weekly unemployment claims came in at 233,000, and continued claims came in at 1,875,000. August 2024 mortgage rates remained stable heading into Friday.
Wednesday – August 7th
- MBA Purchase Index: The MBA Purchase Index came in at 661.4.
- MBA Refinance Index: The MBA Refinance Index came in at 133.9.
Friday – August 2nd
- Employment Report: The market expected the jobs report to show 175,000 jobs created. However, the reading came in much lower, only showing 114,000 jobs created. The unemployment rate came in at 4.3% (the market expected 4.1%), and earnings came in at a 0.2% increase (the market was expecting a 0.3% increase). August 2024 mortgage rates improved post-report.
Thursday – August 1st:
- Unemployment Claims: Weekly unemployment claims came in at 249,000, and continued claims came in at 1,877,000.
- Challenger Layoffs: The Challenger Layoff report came in at 25,885, which is lower than last month’s report of 48,786.
Mortgage-Backed Securities & Treasury Snapshot
Here are the two-week opening and closing levels of Mortgage-Backed Securities and the 10-year Treasury Yield.
August 1st – August 15th:
Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 4.5 started trading at the 96.84 level, and the UMBS 5.0 coupon started at the 98.85 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the 3.97% level.
At the end of the two-week period, Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 4.5 was at the 97.02 level, and the UMBS 5.0 coupon was nearing the 98.98 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the 3.92% level.
August 16th – August 30th:
Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 4.5 started trading at the 97.26 level, and the UMBS 5.0 coupon started at the 99.18 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the 3.88% level.
At the end of the two-week period, Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 4.5 was at the (pending) level, and the UMBS 5.0 coupon was nearing the (pending) level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the (pending) level.
You Can Also Follow Me On Twitter And Facebook
For additional daily mortgage updates, you can also follow me on Twitter and on Facebook.
