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European Central Bank:
The 10y yield opened today at the 2.90% level and Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) opened in positive territory which means mortgage rates should start the day at similar levels seen yesterday afternoon. Today we have the Export and Import Prices reports and on Friday we have Retail Sales and a 30y Bond auction. Later this morning European Central Bank head Mario Draghi speaks and sometimes he says a few things which end up moving markets. If anything significant comes out and we see a sharp move in bonds and/or mortgage rates I’ll update the post along with our twitter feed.
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Moving forward it will not be surprising to see bonds and mortgage rates take a “wait and see” approach going into next weeks Fed meeting (Wednesday they announce their decision). Most analyst still believe the Fed is going to raise their rate next week despite slightly weaker economic data over the last 4-6 weeks. A recent change in expectations among some analyst is what the Fed says in their press release. With the economy potentially slowing down the Fed might be inclined to take a more “Dovish” tone next week when they release their statement after the meeting. Trade war fears, the potential of a government shutdown, ballooning government deficit are all things we’ll be keeping an eye on as we move towards 2019. Generally speaking the last few weeks of December and the first week of January are quiet periods for the bond market and mortgage lenders; but that is not always the case. Considering the constant news cycle one never knows what will happen however we’ll be sure to pass along anything significant.
Slowdown In Home Sales:
Home sales have seen a noticeable slow down since the summer and inventory is up which is good news for buyers. What will be interesting moving forward is if that changes now that mortgage rates have moved back below 4.50%. Will sales pick up again with lower mortgage rates? I would not expect to see a huge uptick based on mortgage rates moving down especially since we’re moving into what is usually the slowest time for home sales. We’ll also need to keep an eye on home builders and their expectations for 2019.
Currently We Are Seeing:
30 year fixed mortgage rates below 4.50%, 20 year fixed mortgage rates below 4.375% and 15 year fixed rates below 3.75%. Mortgage rates adjust daily; sometimes they adjust multiple times in a day when the bond market is volatile. At JB Mortgage Capital, Inc. we offer residential mortgage loans on 1-4 unit properties for both purchase and the refinance of a current mortgage. We have fixed rate mortgage loan programs and adjustable rate mortgage loan programs.
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