February 2023 is going to be an interesting month for the mortgage industry. Will mortgage rates reverse course and move higher, or will the trend of moving lower continue?
The direction of mortgage rates for the month of February will be impacted early on by the Fed meeting and the Employment report, which is on February 3rd. A favorable Fed outlook and a soft Employment report could push mortgage rates lower.
If the opposite happens then mortgage rates might move higher in February. Another report to keep an eye on will be the CPI report.
Opportunities And Risks For February 2023 Mortgage Rates
As it has been the last six to nine months, the inflation reports and the Fed are going to influence the short and long-term direction of mortgage rates. Keep an eye on the Fed meeting, the Employment report, and the CPI report for what opportunities and risks February 2023 mortgage rates lie ahead.
February 2023 Mortgage Rate Forecast For California
Here are our latest February 2023 mortgage rate forecasts for California:
- 30-year fixed rates below 5.25%
- 20-year fixed rates below 5.125%
- 15-year fixed rates below 4.75%
Our February 2023 mortgage rate forecast is based on properties in California, a loan amount of $350,000, a primary home, excellent credit (740 or higher credit score), and a Loan-To-Value ratio below 60% (purchase transactions).
We may see days in which mortgage rates spike higher however, overall, we believe there will be opportunities to lock a mortgage rate at or below these levels throughout the month of February.
Mortgage Rate And Payment Chart
Here is a quick reference guide to February 2023 mortgage rate possibilities in California (these are not quotes; just examples) and the payments associated with each level based on various conforming loan amounts. See our important disclosure below.
30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage
|Term||Loan Amount||Mortgage Rate||Payment|
20-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage
|Term||Loan Amount||Mortgage Rate||Payment|
15-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage
|Term||Loan Amount||Mortgage Rate||Payment|
Important disclosure: The above is not a mortgage rate quote, nor is it an offer to lend. It’s only a generic example of various mortgage rates, loan amounts, and payments. Our mortgage rate chart is meant to educate and inform our readers. The current mortgage rate market may be higher or lower than the examples listed in these mortgage rate charts. Also, mortgage rates can and often do adjust multiple times a day.
California Mortgage Calculator
Using a mortgage calculator to figure out your monthly payment is an essential part of buying a home in California or refinancing a current mortgage. Use our free mortgage calculator to help you determine what you can afford.
With our online mortgage calculator, you can also factor in your property tax amount along with your annual homeowner’s insurance amount with your monthly mortgage payment.
Our California mortgage calculator is free and easy to use.
And our mortgage calculator is especially helpful for those who want to impound their property taxes and property insurance into their monthly mortgage payment. If you have any questions about or California mortgage calculator please don’t hesitate to ask.
Update Mortgage Guidelines February 2023
Fannie Mae is increasing their Loan Level Price Adjustments which for some will increase mortgage rates, and for others, it will lower mortgage rates. The update will go into effect in the Spring, more to follow at a later date.
Economic Calendar For February 2023
Here we cover the daily economic events that might impact February 2023 mortgage rates. After the report comes out, we’ll update the post with that information and comment on if there is a potential impact on the Mortgage-Backed Securities market and consumer mortgage rates.
To start things off, we have the following reports:
- ISM Manufacturing report
- ADP Employment
- ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
- BLS Employment report
Monday – February 27th:
- Durable Goods: The Durable Goods report came in -4.5%, and the market was anticipating the report to show a -4.0% decline.
Friday – February 24th:
- CORE PCE: The Fed’s primary inflation gauge came in higher than expected. 4.7% versus expectations of 4.3%.
Thursday – February 23rd:
- Unemployment Claims: The unemployment claims number came in at 192,000, and the Continued Claims report came in at 1,654,000.
Wednesday – February 22nd:
- MBA Purchase Index: The MBA Purchase Index came in at 147.1.
- MBA Refinance Index: The MBA Refinance Index came in at 469.9.
Tuesday – February 21st:
- Markit Composite PMI: Last month, Markit Composite PMI came in at 46.9, and this month it came in at 47.8.
Thursday – February 16th:
- Philly Fed Index: A big miss in the Philly Fed Index. The market was expecting a decline of 7.4 however, the report came in with a decline of 24.3.
- Core Producer Prices: The CPP report came in at 5.4%, and the market was expecting 4.9%.
- Unemployment Claims: This week, the unemployment claims came in at 194,000, and Continued Claims came in at 1,696,000.
Wednesday – February 15th:
- MBA Purchase Index: The MBA Purchase Index came in at 179.6.
- MBA Refinance Index: The MBA Refinance Index came in at 480.5.
- Retail Sales: Last month, the Retail Sales report declined by 1.1%. This month it bounced back better than expected at 3.0%
Tuesday – February 14th:
- CPI Report: Last month, the y/y CPI report came in at 6.50%, and this month it came in at 6.4%. The m/m headline CPI report came in at 0.5, which was in line with expectations. CORE CPI was expected to come in at 5.5%, and it came in at 5.6%, and CORE CPI m/m came in at 0.4% (as the market was expecting).
Friday – February 10th:
- Consumer Sentiment February: The market was expecting the Consumer Sentiment report to come in at 65.0, and it came in a bit higher at 66.4.
Thursday – February 9th:
- Unemployment Claims: The unemployment claims number came in at 196,000, and the Continued Claims report came in at 1,688,000.
Wednesday – February 8th:
- MBA Purchase Index: The MBA Purchase Index came in at 190.0.
- MBA Refinance Index: The MBA Refinance Index came in at 549.3.
Friday – February 3rd:
- Employment Report: The Employment report came in hot with 517,000 jobs, and the market was expecting 185,000 jobs created. Also, last month’s report was revised from 223,000 to 260,000. Earnings came in as expected, as did Average Workweek hours.
Thursday – February 2nd:
- Unemployment Claims: Weekly unemployment claims came in at 183,000, and continued claims came in at 1,655,000.
- Challenger Layoffs: The Challenger Layoffs report came in at 102,943. This is the highest reading since the Great Financial Crisis of 2008.
Wednesday – February 1st:
- MBA Purchase Index: The MBA Purchase Index came in at 184.3.
- MBA Refinance Index: The MBA Refinance Index came in at 466.6.
- ADP Employment Report: The ADP Employment report came in with 106,000 jobs created.
- ISM Manufacturing PMI: Last month, the ISM Manufacturing PMI report came in at 48.4, and this month it came in at 47.4.
February 2023 Mortgage Rates In California – Averages
We’ll update this section as we move further into February however, to start off the month, we’re seeing the following averages.
- The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 5.25%.
- The average 20-year fixed mortgage rate is 5.00%
- The average 15-year fixed rate is 4.875%.
This is an average of the February 2023 mortgage rates of everyone we’re seeing, from less-than-perfect credit to excellent credit. Please keep in mind that mortgage rates adjust daily, sometimes multiple times during the day. For a mortgage quote specific to your situation, please be sure to contact us directly.
Mortgage-Backed Securities & Treasury Snapshot
February 1st – February 3rd:
Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 4.5 started trading at the 98.66 level, and the UMBS 5.0 coupon started at the 100.39 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the 4.187% level.
At the end of the week, Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 4.5 was at the 98.80 level, and the UMBS 5.0 coupon was nearing the 100.22 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the 3.52% level.
February 6th – February 10th:
Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 4.5 started trading at the 97.97 level, and the UMBS 5.0 coupon started at the 98.55 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the 3.64% level.
At the end of the week, Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 4.5 was at the 97.42 level, and the UMBS 5.0 coupon was nearing the 99.03 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the 3.74% level.
February 13th – February 17th:
Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 4.5 started trading at the 97.59 level, and the UMBS 5.0 coupon started at the 99.19 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the 3.70% level.
At the end of the week, Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 4.5 was at the 96.88 level, and the UMBS 5.0 coupon was nearing the 98.75 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the 3.82% level.
February 21st – February 28th:
Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 4.5 started trading at the 95.88 level, and the UMBS 5.0 coupon started at the 97.99 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the 3.95% level.
At the end of the week, Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 4.5 was at the 96.11 level, and the UMBS 5.0 coupon was nearing the 98.11 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the 3.92% level.
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