Will rates remain stable as we move into winter, or will we see some volatility? It’s anyone’s guess what will happen, and things will kick off on Friday, February 2nd when the monthly jobs report comes out.
The jobs reports seem to always come in stronger than expected and I’m anticipating that continuing in February. After that, the CPI and PCE reports (two measurements of inflation) and their impact on mortgage rates might be big this month.
Opportunities And Risks For February Mortgage Rates
The best thing for mortgage rates for the next two to four weeks is stability. Mortgage rates are not a fan of two things: volatility and inflation. When the bond market improves too fast, mortgage rates tend not to follow.
Generally speaking, mortgage rates prefer stability
February 2024 Mortgage Rate Forecast For California
Here are our latest February 2024 mortgage rate forecasts for California:
- 30-year fixed rates below 6.25%
- 20-year fixed rates below 6.125%
- 15-year fixed rates below 5.625%
Our February 2024 mortgage rate forecast is based on properties in California, a loan amount of $350,000, a primary home, excellent credit (740 or higher credit score), and a Loan-To-Value ratio below 60% (purchase transactions).
We may see days in which mortgage rates spike higher; however, overall, we believe there will be opportunities to lock a mortgage rate at or below these levels throughout February.
Mortgage Rate And Payment Chart
Here is a quick reference guide to February 2024 mortgage rate possibilities in California (these are not quotes, just examples) and the payments associated with each level based on various conforming loan amounts. See our important disclosure below.
30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage
| Term | Loan Amount | Mortgage Rate | Payment |
| 30-year fixed | $365,000 | 6.25% | $2,247.37 |
| 30-year fixed | $465,000 | 6.25% | $2,863.08 |
| 30-year fixed | $565,000 | 6.50% | $3,478.80 |
| 30-year fixed | $665,000 | 6.50% | $4,094.52 |
Important disclosure: The above is not a mortgage rate quote, nor is it an offer to lend. It’s only a generic example of various mortgage rates, loan amounts, and payments. Our mortgage rate chart is meant to educate and inform our readers. The current mortgage rate market may be higher or lower than the examples listed in these mortgage rate charts. Also, mortgage rates can and often do adjust multiple times a day.
California Mortgage Calculator
Using a mortgage calculator to determine your monthly payment is an essential part of buying a home in California or refinancing a current mortgage. Our free mortgage calculator can help you determine what you can afford.
With our online mortgage calculator, you can also factor in your property tax and annual homeowner’s insurance into your monthly mortgage payment (as well as your HOA dues, if applicable).
Our California mortgage calculator is free and easy to use.
Our mortgage calculator is especially helpful for those who want to include their property taxes and property insurance in their monthly mortgage payment. If you have any questions about our California mortgage calculator, please don’t hesitate to ask.
Economic Calendar For February 2024
Here, we cover the daily economic events that might impact February 2024 mortgage rates. After the report comes out, we’ll update the post with that information and comment on whether there is a potential impact on the Mortgage-Backed Securities market and consumer mortgage rates.
To start things off, we have the following report:
- ISM Manufacturing report
- ADP Employment
- ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
- BLS Employment report
Wednesday – February 28th
- MBA Purchase Index: The MBA Purchase Index came in at 127.6.
- MBA Refinance Index: The MBA Refinance Index came in at 395.9.
Tuesday – February 27th
- Durable Goods: The monthly Durable Goods report came in at -6.1% vs market expectations of -4.5%.
Thursday – February 22nd
- Unemployment Claims: Weekly unemployment claims came in at 201,000, and continued claims came in at 1,862,000.
Wednesday – February 21st
- MBA Purchase Index: The MBA Purchase Index came in at 133.6.
- MBA Refinance Index: The MBA Refinance Index came in at 427.0.
Thursday – February 15th
- Unemployment Claims: Weekly unemployment claims came in at 212,000, and continued claims came in at 1,895,000.
- Retail Sales: The Retail Sales report came in much lower than expected -08% vs. -0.1%.
Wednesday – February 14th
- MBA Purchase Index: The MBA Purchase Index came in at 149.2.
- MBA Refinance Index: The MBA Refinance Index came in at 489.62.
Tuesday – February 13th
- Core CPI: The widely recognized inflation report came in at 0.3% (m/m) and 3.9% (y/y).
Thursday – February 8th
- Unemployment Claims: Weekly unemployment claims came in at 218,000, and continued claims came in at 1,871,000.
Wednesday – February 7th
- MBA Purchase Index: The MBA Purchase Index came in at 153.5.
- MBA Refinance Index: The MBA Refinance Index came in at 500.2.
Friday – February 2nd
- Employment Report: The market was expecting the jobs report to show 180,000 jobs created; however, the report came in significantly higher (353,000 jobs created). The unemployment rate came in at 3.7% (the market expected 3.8%), and earnings came in at a 0.6% increase (the market was expecting a 0.3% increase). February 2024 mortgage rates moved higher post-report.
Thursday – February 1st
- Challenger Layoffs: The Challenger Layoff report came in at 82,307, which is lower than last month’s report of 34,817 report.
- Unemployment Claims: Weekly unemployment claims came in at 224,000, and continued claims came in at 1,898,000.
Mortgage-Backed Securities & Treasury Snapshot
Here are the two-week opening and closing levels of Mortgage-Backed Securities and the 10-year Treasury Yield.
February 1st – February 15th:
Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 4.5 started trading at the 96.95 level, and the UMBS 5.0 coupon started at the 98.95 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the 3.88%% level.
At the end of the week, Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 4.5 was at the 94.78 level, and the UMBS 5.0 coupon was nearing the 97.09 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the 4.23%% level.
February 16th – February 31st:
Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 4.5 started trading at the 94.55 level, and the UMBS 5.0 coupon started at the 96.80 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the 4.28% level.
At the end of the week, Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 4.5 was at the 94.53 level, and the UMBS 5.0 coupon was nearing the 96.92 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the 4.25% level.
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