Happy New Year! Mortgage rates are near the best levels we’ve seen since the summer of 2022, and there’s a decent chance they’ll continue to improve as we move further into January. The CPI report on January 12th is the economic report to keep an eye on. If that comes in below expectations, we may see mortgage rates continue to improve.
Opportunities And Risks For January 2023 Mortgage Rates
It’s a new year, but the song is still the same, inflation. If inflation cools in January, there is an opportunity for mortgage rates to improve. However, the market is still scared of inflation, so any hint of rising inflation will send January 2023 mortgage rates much higher.
January 2023 Mortgage Rate Forecast For California
Here are our latest January 2023 mortgage rate forecasts for California:
- 30-year fixed rates below 5.125%
- 20-year fixed rates below 5.00%
- 15-year fixed rates below 4.625%
Our January 2023 mortgage rate forecast is based on properties in California, a loan amount of $350,000, a primary home, excellent credit (740 or higher credit score), and a Loan-To-Value ratio below 60% (purchase transactions).
We may see days in which mortgage rates spike higher however, overall, we believe there will be opportunities to lock a mortgage rate at or below these levels throughout the month of January.
Mortgage Rate And Payment Chart
Here is a quick reference guide to January 2023 mortgage rate possibilities in California (these are not quotes; just examples) and the payments associated with each level based on various conforming loan amounts. See our important disclosure below.
30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage:
| Term | Loan Amount | Mortgage Rate | Payment |
| 30-year fixed | $325,000 | 4.875% | $1,719.93 |
| 30-year fixed | $425,000 | 4.875% | $2,249.13 |
| 30-year fixed | $525,000 | 4.875% | $2,778.34 |
| 30-year fixed | $625,000 | 4.875% | $3,307.55 |
20-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage:
| Term | Loan Amount | Mortgage Rate | Payment |
| 20-year fixed | $325,000 | 4.625% | $2,078.10 |
| 20-year fixed | $425,000 | 4.625% | $2,717.52 |
| 20-year fixed | $525,000 | 4.625% | $3,356.94 |
| 20-year fixed | $625,000 | 4.625% | $3,996.34 |
15-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage:
| Term | Loan Amount | Mortgage Rate | Payment |
| 15-year fixed | $325,000 | 4.375% | $2,465.52 |
| 15-year fixed | $425,000 | 4.375% | $3,224.14 |
| 15-year fixed | $525,000 | 4.375% | $3,982.76 |
| 15-year fixed | $625,000 | 4.375% | $4,741.38 |
Important disclosure: The above is not a mortgage rate quote, nor is it an offer to lend. It’s only a generic example of various mortgage rates, loan amounts, and payments. Our mortgage rate chart is meant to educate and inform our readers. The current mortgage rate market may be higher or lower than the examples listed in these mortgage rate charts. Also, mortgage rates can and often do adjust multiple times a day.
California Mortgage Calculator
Using a mortgage calculator to figure out your monthly payment is an essential part of buying a home in California or refinancing a current mortgage. Use our free mortgage calculator to help you determine what you can afford.
With our online mortgage calculator, you can also factor in your property tax amount along with your annual homeowner’s insurance amount with your monthly mortgage payment.
Our California mortgage calculator is free and easy to use.
And our mortgage calculator is especially helpful for those who want to impound their property taxes and property insurance into their monthly mortgage payment. If you have any questions about or California mortgage calculator, please don’t hesitate to ask.
Update Mortgage Guidelines January 2023
There are no significant changes to guidelines this month.
Economic Calendar For January 2023
Here we cover the daily economic events that might impact January 2023 mortgage rates. After the report comes out, we’ll update the post with that information and comment on if there is a potential impact on the Mortgage-Backed Securities market and consumer mortgage rates.
To start things off, we have the following reports:
- ISM Manufacturing report
- ADP Employment
- ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
- BLS Employment report
Thursday – January 26th:
- Unemployment Claims: 186,000 claims filed which is one of the lowest readings in months
- GDP Advance Q4: The market was expecting the report to come in at 2.6% however, the reading was 2.9%
Wednesday – January 25th:
- MBA Purchase Index: The MBA Purchase Index came in at 205.4.
- MBA Refinance Index: The MBA Refinance Index came in at 502.3.
Tuesday – January 24th:
- Market Composite PMI: The Market Composite PMI came in at 46.6, and the market was expecting it to come in at 47.0
Thursday – January 19th:
- Unemployment Claims: 206,000 claims filed
- Philly Fed Index: The Philly Fed Index declined by -8.9%.
Wednesday – January 18th:
- MBA Purchase Index: The MBA Purchase Index came in at 198.7.
- MBA Refinance Index: The MBA Refinance Index came in at 438.3.
- Retail Sales: The Retail Sales report came in at -1.1%, which is below the -0.8% the markets were expecting.
- Core Producer Prices: The CPP report came in at 5.5% (year/year).
Thursday – January 12th:
- Unemployment Claims: 205,000 claims filed.
- CORE CPI: Year over year, CORE CPI came in at 5.7% (last month it was 6.00%), and month over month, CORE CPI came in at 0.3% (last month it was 0.2%). And the Headline CPI index, which includes gas and other volatile items, came in at -0.3%. The first deflationary reading in years.
Wednesday – January 11th:
- MBA Purchase Index: The MBA Purchase Index came in at 159.4.
- MBA Refinance Index: The MBA Refinance Index came in at 326.7.
Friday – January 6th:
- Employment Report: The market was expecting an increase of 200,000, and the report came in at 223,000 jobs that were created last month. The Unemployment rate moved to 3.50%, and earnings came in at 0.3% (lower than the market was expecting).
Thursday – January 5th:
- Unemployment Claims: Weekly unemployment claims came in at 204,000, and continued claims came in at 1,694,000.
- ADP Employment Report: The ADP Employment report came in at 235,000 jobs created.
Wednesday – January 4th:
- MBA Purchase Index: The MBA Purchase Index came in at 160.2.
- MBA Refinance Index: The MBA Refinance Index came in at 310.9.
- ISM Manufacturing PMI: Last month, the ISM Manufacturing PMI report came in at 49.0, and this month it came in at 48.9. January 2023 mortgage rates improved post-report.
January 2023 Mortgage Rates In California – Averages
We’ll update this section as we move further into January however, to start off the month, we’re seeing the following averages.
- The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 5.25%.
- The average 20-year fixed mortgage rate is 5.00%
- The average 15-year fixed rate is 4.875%.
This is an average of the January 2023 mortgage rates of everyone we’re seeing, from less-than-perfect credit to excellent credit. Please keep in mind that mortgage rates adjust daily, sometimes multiple times during the day. For a mortgage quote specific to your situation, please be sure to contact us directly.
Mortgage-Backed Securities & Treasury Snapshot
January 3rd – January 6th:
Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 5.0 started trading at the 99.02 level, and the UMBS 5.5 coupon started at the 100.58 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the 3.743% level.
At the end of the week, Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 5.0 was at the 99.95 level, and the UMBS 5.5 coupon was nearing the 101.20 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the 3.564% level.
January 9th – January 13th:
Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 5.0 started trading at the 100.16 level, and the UMBS 5.5 coupon started at the 101.44 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the 3.527% level.
At the end of the week, Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 5.0 was at the 100.27 level, and the UMBS 5.5 coupon was nearing the 101.41 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the 3.50% level.
January 17th – January 20th:
Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 5.0 started trading at the 100.08 level, and the UMBS 5.5 coupon started at the 101.23 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the 3.55% level.
At the end of the week, Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 5.0 was at the 100.22 level, and the UMBS 5.5 coupon was nearing the 101.34 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the 3.48% level.
January 23rd – January 31st:
Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 5.0 started trading at the 100.05 level, and the UMBS 5.5 coupon started at the 101.25 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the 3.51% level.
At the end of the week, Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 5.0 was at the (pending) level, and the UMBS 5.5 coupon was nearing the (pending) level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the (pending) level.
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