It’s a new year, and the mortgage industry is ready for a fresh start. A glimmer of hope appeared during the last three months of 2023, and many within the industry are pinning their hopes on a brighter 2024. The most likely outcome, at least for the first three months of 2024, is more of the same. Slight improvements and the occasion reversal.
Two steps forward, and in this case of mortgage rates, 1.95 steps back. “Higher for longer” was the theme for 2023, and while we started to chip away at that, I would not expect a dramatic reversal any time soon.
Opportunities And Risks For January Mortgage Rates
The biggest opportunity for January 2024 mortgage rates to move to a lower level will be the Jobs report and then the CPI report. However, I suggest being cautious heading into the first quarter of 2024. The Fed is still cautious, and so is the market.
The common theme the last two years continues; lock your rate and move forward with closing. It’s not worth the risk until we can see a sustained move down followed by a period of stability.
January 2024 Mortgage Rate Forecast For California
Here are our latest January 2024 mortgage rate forecasts for California:
- 30-year fixed rates below 6.25%
- 20-year fixed rates below 6.125%
- 15-year fixed rates below 5.625%
Our January 2024 mortgage rate forecast is based on properties in California, a loan amount of $350,000, a primary home, excellent credit (740 or higher credit score), and a Loan-To-Value ratio below 60% (purchase transactions).
We may see days in which mortgage rates spike higher; however, overall, we believe there will be opportunities to lock a mortgage rate at or below these levels throughout the month of January.
Mortgage Rate And Payment Chart
Here is a quick reference guide to January 2024 mortgage rate possibilities in California (these are not quotes, just examples) and the payments associated with each level based on various conforming loan amounts. See our important disclosure below.
30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage
| Term | Loan Amount | Mortgage Rate | Payment |
| 30-year fixed | $315,000 | 6.50% | $1,991.01 |
| 30-year fixed | $415,000 | 6.50% | $2,623.08 |
| 30-year fixed | $515,000 | 6.50% | $3,255.15 |
| 30-year fixed | $615,000 | 6.50% | $3,887.22 |
Important disclosure: The above is not a mortgage rate quote, nor is it an offer to lend. It’s only a generic example of various mortgage rates, loan amounts, and payments. Our mortgage rate chart is meant to educate and inform our readers. The current mortgage rate market may be higher or lower than the examples listed in these mortgage rate charts. Also, mortgage rates can and often do adjust multiple times a day.
California Mortgage Calculator
Using a mortgage calculator to determine your monthly payment is an essential part of buying a home in California or refinancing a current mortgage. Our free mortgage calculator can help you determine what you can afford.
With our online mortgage calculator, you can also factor in your property tax and annual homeowner’s insurance into your monthly mortgage payment (as well as your HOA dues if applicable).
Our California mortgage calculator is free and easy to use.
Our mortgage calculator is especially helpful for those who want to include their property taxes and property insurance in their monthly mortgage payment. If you have any questions about our California mortgage calculator, please don’t hesitate to ask.
Economic Calendar For January 2024
Here we cover the daily economic events that might impact January 2024 mortgage rates. After the report comes out, we’ll update the post with that information and comment on if there is a potential impact on the Mortgage-Backed Securities market and consumer mortgage rates.
To start things off, we have the following report:
- ISM Manufacturing report
- ADP Employment
- ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
- BLS Employment report
Friday – January 26th
- Core PCE: The Fed’s favorite inflation report came in at 0.2% (m/m) and 2.90% (y/y). This was in line with market expectations.
Thursday – January 25th
- Unemployment Claims: Weekly unemployment claims came in at 214,000, and continued claims came in at 1,833,000.
- GDP Q4: The GDP Q4 report came in at 3.30%, and the market expectations were 2.00%. January 2024 mortgage rates moved higher after the report.
Wednesday – January 24th
- MBA Purchase Index: The MBA Purchase Index came in at 174.3.
- MBA Refinance Index: The MBA Refinance Index came in at 438.4.
Thursday – January 18th
- Unemployment Claims: Weekly unemployment claims came in at 187,000, and continued claims came in at 1,806,000.
Wednesday – January 17th
- MBA Purchase Index: The MBA Purchase Index came in at 162.2.
- MBA Refinance Index: The MBA Refinance Index came in at 471.2.
- Retail Sales: The market was expecting the Retail Sales report to come in at 0.4% however, the report was a bit stronger and came in at 06%
Thursday – January 11th
- CPI Report: The year/year CPI report came in at 3.9%, and the month/month report came in at 0.3%.
- Unemployment Claims: Weekly unemployment claims came in at 202,000, and continued claims came in at 1,834,000.
Wednesday – January 10th
- MBA Purchase Index: The MBA Purchase Index came in at 148.6.
- MBA Refinance Index: The MBA Refinance Index came in at 425.4.
Friday – January 5th
- Employment Report: The market was expecting the jobs report to show 170,000 jobs created; however the report came in higher (216,000 jobs created). The unemployment rate came in at 3.7% (the market expected 3.8%), and earnings came in at a 0.4% increase (the market was expecting a 0.3% increase).
Thursday – January 4th
- Challenger Layoffs: The Challenger Layoff report came in at 34,817, which is lower than last month’s report of 45,510 report.
- Unemployment Claims: Weekly unemployment claims came in at 202,000, and continued claims came in at 1,855,000.
- ADP Jobs Report: The market was expecting 115,000 jobs created, and the report came in at 164,000 jobs created. January 2024 mortgage rates remained stable post-report.
Wednesday – January 3rd
- MBA Purchase Index: The MBA Purchase Index came in at 140.7.
- MBA Refinance Index: The MBA Refinance Index came in at 358.2.
- JOLTS Job Openings: According to the JOLTS job openings report, there were 8,790,000 jobs available in the United States last month.
Tuesday – January 2nd
- S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: Last month, the report came in at 49.4, and this month it came in at 47.9.
Mortgage-Backed Securities & Treasury Snapshot
January 1st – January 15th:
Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 4.5 started trading at the 96.41 level, and the UMBS 5.0 coupon started at the 98.47 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the 3.93% level.
At the end of the week, Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 4.5 was at the 96.98 level, and the UMBS 5.0 coupon was nearing the 98.45 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the 3.94% level.
January 16th – January 31st:
Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 4.5 started trading at the 96.20 level, and the UMBS 5.0 coupon started at the 98.36 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the 4.06% level.
At the end of the week, Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 4.5 was at the 96.88 level, and the UMBS 5.0 coupon was nearing the 98.97 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the 3.91% level.
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