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Mortgage Rates At The Open:
Mortgage rates will finish the week at similar levels to yesterday as both Mortgage Backed Securities and Treasuries start the day in negative territory. As perviously mentioned it appears both markets and mortgage rates are taking a “wait and see” attitude with respect to next weeks Fed meeting (more on that below). The 10y yield opened at the 2.73% level this morning.
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Mortgage Rate Forecast For February 2019:
Predicting exactly what mortgage rates will do in the future is a difficult thing (at best). There are far too many variables involved so the better thing to do is understand what might affect mortgage rates in the future. The mortgage rate forecast for February 2019 is based on the three directions mortgage rates can go and clearly understanding what events might influence that direction. This way we might be to recognize movements before they happen if we start seeing the following events unfold :
- The case for mortgage rates moving down: Economy is slowing much faster than people are anticipating, the trade war with China gets worse and the government shutdown continues.
- Mortgage rates move sideways: More of the same with the current news cycle; some improvements with the economy, trade talks and government shutdown but also so some negative news items as well.
- Mortgage rates move up: The economy and more importantly inflation is growing faster than people expected, trade talks and government shutdown talks greatly improve.
For further discussion on this important topic head on over to our Mortgage Updates section and see our post from January 21st, 2019.
Today we were supposed to get the Durable Goods report however due to the Government Shutdown it will not be issued today. Next week we have the Case Shiller Index and Consumer Confidence on Tuesday. On Wednesday we the ADP National Employment report and the Fed Decision. On Thursday we have the Core PCE report and Chicago PMI. On Friday we have the BLS Employment report and ISM Manufacturing PMI.
There is no end in sight and the affects on the economy are going to start to increase dramatically if this moves further into February. That could have an affect on mortgage rates as a slowing economy usually leads to improved mortgage rates. One thing to watch out for is if they do come to an agreement; how “good” of an agreement is it? Meaning is the agreement just a temporary fix and we’re going to be facing this same issue 3-6-9 months down the road? If so that could have an impact on the economy as well; people will be less confident in the economy going forward and thus spend less to fuel economic growth.
Next Weeks Fed Meeting:
Mortgage rates will probably remain in their recent rang until next weeks Fed meeting. Unless something significant happens (trade deal, government re-opens etc) the 10y yield will probably remain between 2.70% – 2.80%. A meaningful break below or above those levels would be significant.
Currently We Are Seeing:
30 year fixed mortgage rates below 4.375%, 20 year fixed mortgage rates below 4.25% and 15 year fixed rates below 3.625%. Please keep in mind that mortgage rates adjust daily; sometimes they adjust multiple times in a day when the bond market is volatile. Also things like obtaining cash out, lower credit scores, higher Loan-To-Value ratios, rental properties and the subordination of a second mortgage will cause in an increase in your mortgage rate. To get the most up-to-date quote specific to your loan scenario be sure to contact Loan Officer Kevin O’Connor at 1-800-550-5538 or you can submit a “Contact Us” request on the our website.
JB Mortgage Capital, Inc.:
We offer industry low mortgage rates, personal one-on-one service and we have an A+ rating with the Better Business Bureau (BBB). We also have the top rating with the Business Consumers Alliance (AAA). We utilize the latest technology to ensure a fast closing and Loan Officer Kevin O’Connor has over 14 years of experience as a Loan Officer. You can contact him directly at 1-800-550-5538.