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July 2019 Mortgage Rates

Mortgage rates continued to move down entering July 2019. 30 year fixed mortgage rates are finishing off June, 2019 below 4.00% and 15 year fixed mortgage rates and finishing off the month below 3.375% (Conforming loans, excellent credit, low to moderate LTVs, purchases and rate/term refinances).

Current Mortgage Rates

Below is a listing of our current Conforming, FHA, and Jumbo mortgage rates. For a detailed report on current mortgage rates please visit our current mortgage rates section (updated daily). If you are interested in an Adjustable Rate Mortgage and/or a Jumbo loan program please be sure to contact us for an updated quote.

FHA Mortgage Rates

Jumbo Mortgage Rates

July 2019 Mortgage Rate Watch

Going into July we are focused on three key areas that may have an influence on mortgage rates.

  • The Economy: To the surprise of many certain key aspects of the economy remain strong. The Employment report and CPI report came in better than expected and showed that there still are bright spots within the US economy. However, problems remain and some investors believe the Fed will move forward with a cut later this month.
  • Europe: Like the US there have been several reports recently that have surprised investors and analysts (they came in stronger than expected) however several European countries have negative yields which reflects the overall weakening of the European economy.
  • Trade with China: This is probably the biggest “threat” to mortgage rates as we move further into summer. A trade deal agreement could significantly impact mortgage rates due to the expectation that a trade agreement with China would go a long way to solving most economic issues.

July 2019 Mortgage Rate Economic Calendar

Below are the important dates for economic reports that may affect the Mortgage-Backed Securities market and mortgage rates. As we move closer and into April we’ll update the Calendar.

  • July 01: ISM Manufacturing PMI for June
  • July 02: ISM-New York Index
  • July 03: ADP Employment report, Mortgage Market Index, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, and Jobless claims
  • July 05: Employment report
  • July 08: Consumer Credit May 2019
  • July 09: Fed Chairman Powell speech
  • July 10: Weekly Mortgage Market Index, Wholesale Sales, Wholesale Inventories, 10y Note Auction and FOMC Minutes
  • July 11: Core Consumer Prices Index (CPI), weekly Jobless Claims, 30y Bond Auction
  • July 12: Core Producer Prices (CPP)
  • July 15: NY Fed Manufacturing for July
  • July 16: Retail Sales for June, Import Prices, Export Prices and NAHB Housing Market Index
  • July 17: Weekly Mortgage Market Index, Housing Starts and Building Permits
  • July 18: Philly Fed Business Index, weekly Jobless claims and 10y Auction
  • July 19: 5y Inflation Outlook, 1y Inflation Outlook and Consumer Sentiment
  • July 23: Monthly Home Prices and Existing Home Sales
  • July 24: New Home Sales and weekly Mortgage Market Index
  • July 25: Weekly Jobless claims
  • July 30: Core PCE, Personal Incomes, Case-Schiller, Consumer Confidence
  • FOMC decision (Fed), ADP Employment report
Some reports have a bigger impact than others. We’ll be updating the calendar with regional Fed reports as they come in. The most important reports that usually have an effect on mortgage rates are: 
  • BLS Employment Report
  • ISM Manufacturing PMI
  • Core CPI

The above three reports tend to have the most influence over the Mortgage-Backed Securities Market and mortgage rates. Additional “important” reports include Retail Sales and Durable Goods.

Mortgage rate forecast for July 2019

We expect mortgage rates to remain stable during the month of July. Risks to mortgage rates moving higher include a resolution of the trade war with China, and improving economic conditions both in the US and Europe.

July 2019 mortgage rate average expectations

  • The average 30 year fixed mortgage rate for July 2019 is anticipated to be below: 4.00%
  • The average 20 year fixed mortgage rate for July 2019 is anticipated to be below: 3.875%
  • The average 15 year fixed mortgage rate for July 2019 is anticipated to be below: 3.375%*the mortgage rate averages are averages anticipated by JB Mortgage Capital, Inc.; these are not national survey numbers.

Mortgage Pro Tips For July 2019

Mortgage Pro Tip #1

If you are doing a refinance or purchase be prepared. Being prepared could save you thousands of dollars in fees and interest. For those refinancing here is a list of documentation you need to refinance your home. And if you are buying a home here is a list of documentation you need to purchase a home. Being prepared will save you time and money.

Mortgage Pro Tip #2

Do you have a FHA home loan and are you thinking of refinancing your mortgage? I highly suggest you consider a FHA Streamline Refinance. It simply is one of the best refinance programs in the country. If you have a FHA home loan then you may be eligible for this special refinance program. Two important highlights: No income docs and no appraisal.

Mortgage Pro Tip #3

To a certain point this is true; the higher your credit score the lower your mortgage rate. If you are buying a home or refinancing a current mortgage take the time to review your credit if you are unsure what your current report looks like. And if you need credit report tips then be sure to check out our credit report tips for 2019 post. Along with how to improve your credit score we cover a wide variety of topics including how mortgage companies view your credit report and score.

Monthly Mortgage Rate Summary

June 2019 Mortgage Rates

The good times continue in May as bond yields and mortgage rates continued to move lower. The 10-year yield end the month around 2.05%. Not as big as a drop as May but still a significant move down.

Concerns over the economy continued and what the trade war might be doing to the economy were the two focal points for most analysts and investors.

Mortgage lenders were aggressive with pricing in an attempt to attract new business before homeowners start taking that summer vacation. Traditionally July and August are slower months for mortgage lenders in California and throughout the country.

May 2019 Mortgage Rates

The month of May was good for mortgage rates. The 10y yield moved from 2.54% to 2.18% and with that the Mortgage-Backed Securities market rallied as well. Mortgage rates moved significantly lower during this time period and mortgage loan applications increased as well.

And the rally in bonds happened after a much stronger than anticipated jobs reports. Expectations were for 185,000 jobs created and the reading came in at 263,000 jobs created. However, like the previous month; earnings increased less than expected (which was good news for bonds and mortgage rates).

As we moved further into May the bond market rally continued to improve and mortgage rates continued to move lower. By the end of the month, we were seeing mortgage rates approach multi-year lows and mortgage loan application volume remained strong.

April 2019 Mortgage Rates

Towards the end of March and all the way into mid-April bond’s sold off and mortgage rates moved higher. The move was not surprising in that mortgage rates had already moved significantly lower from December – March and at some point a bounce higher was expected.

The 10y Treasury yield moved from 2.40% to 2.60% in a very short period of time however the market eventually leveled off and after mid-April, a new rally began.

The Employment report that came out on April 5th, 2019 was stronger than expected. Expectations were for 180,000 jobs created and the reading came in at 196,000 jobs created. Also the previous was revised higher as well.

Annual Core CPI came in lower than expected on April 10th, 2019 however it was not enough to stop the selloff in bonds which was causing mortgage rates to move higher.

Loan Officer Kevin O'Connor

About The Author

Loan Officer Kevin O'Connor has over 16 years of experience as a Mortgage Loan Originator and is licensed with the state of California and the Nationwide Mortgage Licensing System. He has a top rating with the Better Business Bureau, Google, Yelp, and Zillow. CA DRE #01499872 / NMLS #247447

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