Many people believe that July 2022 mortgage rates will be higher compared to mortgage rates last month. I am not one of those people. I think we’ve seen a top in mortgage rates and as we move further into the summer we should see mortgage rates pull back from the June highs.
It’s important to know that there is zero chance mortgage rates make a significant move lower this summer/fall. It’s not the way the market works as the damage done to mortgage bonds in 2022 has been significant. If, and this is a big if, we are ever lucky enough to see a sub 4.00% zero point 30 year fixed mortgage rate again it will be a long time from now. Moving forward it’s important to keep your expectations realistic and take advantage of the market when an opportunity pops up.
Opportunities And Risks For July 2022
July 2022 mortgage rates have the opportunity to move lower provided that the economic data shows inflation is moving lower. Another important factor is the Russia – Ukraine war. If things stay the same or improve that’s a positive for mortgage rates.
On the flip side, if the economic data shows inflation is getting worse and/or the war in the Ukraine is expanding then mortgage bonds will most likely sell-off on the news which means July 2022 mortgage rates will move higher.
July 2022 Mortgage Rate Forecast For California
Here are our latest July 2022 mortgage rate forecasts for California:
- 30-year fixed rates below 4.875%
- 20-year fixed rates below 4.75%
- 15-year fixed rates below 4.375%
Our July 2022 mortgage rate forecast is based on properties in California, a loan amount of $350,000, a primary home, excellent credit (740 or higher credit score), and a Loan-To-Value ratio below 60% (purchase transactions).
We may see days in which mortgage rates spike higher however overall we believe there will be opportunities to lock a mortgage rate at or below these levels throughout the month of July.
Mortgage Rate And Payment Chart
Here is a quick reference guide to July 2022 mortgage rate possibilities in California (these are not quotes; just examples) and the payments associated with each level based on various conforming loan amounts. See our important disclosure below.
30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage:
|Term||Loan Amount||Mortgage Rate||Payment|
20-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage:
|Term||Loan Amount||Mortgage Rate||Payment|
15-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage:
|Term||Loan Amount||Mortgage Rate||Payment|
Important Disclosure For July 2022 mortgage rates: The above is not a mortgage rate quote; nor is it an offer to lend. It’s only a generic example of various mortgage rates, loan amounts, and payments. Our mortgage rate chart is meant to educate and inform our readers. The current July 2022 mortgage rate market may be higher or lower than the examples listed in these mortgage rate charts. Also; mortgage rates can and often do adjust multiple times a day.
California VA Home Loans
Are you a veteran and you are looking to purchase or refinance a home? If you answered “yes” then be sure to contact us for a no-cost/no-obligation VA home loan quote.
We take pride in the fact that our California VA home loans come with great rates and low closing costs. Whether you are buying a home, refinancing a current mortgage, or looking to do some renovations, our California VA home loan program is a great opportunity to help you achieve your goals.
California Mortgage Calculator
Using a mortgage calculator to figure out your monthly payment is an essential part of buying a home in California or refinancing a current mortgage. Use our free mortgage calculator to help you determine what you can afford.
With our online mortgage calculator, you can also factor in your property tax amount along with your annual homeowner’s insurance amount with your monthly mortgage payment.
Our California mortgage calculator is free and easy to use.
And our mortgage calculator is especially helpful for those who want to impound their property taxes and property insurance into their monthly mortgage payment. If you have any questions about or California mortgage calculator please don’t hesitate to ask.
Update Mortgage Guidelines July 2022
There are no significant changes to guidelines this month.
Economic Calendar For July 2022
Here we cover the daily economic events that might impact mortgage rates. After the report comes out we’ll update the post with that information and comment on if there is a potential impact on the Mortgage-Backed Securities market and consumer mortgage rates.
To start things off we have:
- ISM Manufacturing report
- ADP Employment
- ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
- BLS Employment report
Friday – July 29th:
- Core PCE: The Core PCE report came in slightly stronger than anticipated (4.7% vs 4.8%).
- Chicago PMI: The market was expecting the Chicago PMI report to come in at 55.0 however the report came in at 52.1.
Thursday – July 28th:
- Unemployment Claims: Weekly unemployment claims came in at 256,000 and continued claims came in at 1,359,000. As mentioned this is a report to keep an eye on as we move into late summer and early fall.
Wednesday – July 27th:
- MBA Purchase Index: The MBA Purchase Index came in at 206.4.
- MBA Refinance Index: The MBA Refinance Index came in at 631.4.
Tuesday – July 26th:
- Consumer Confidence: The market was expecting the Consumer Confidence report to come in at 97.2 and the report came in at 95.7. July 2022 mortgage rates remained stable after the report.
Friday – July 22nd:
- Markit Manufacturing PMI: The Markit Manufacturing PMI report came in at 47.5 which is another indication that the economy is slowing. Last month the report came in at 52.3.
Thursday – July 21st:
- Philly Fed Index: The Philly Fed Index came in -12.3 (last month it was -3.3). This is good news for July 2022 mortgage rates and bad news for the economy.
- Unemployment Claims: Weekly unemployment claims came in at 251,000 and continued claims came in at 1,384,000. This is a report to keep an eye on. It’s been increasing over the last month or so and if it moves above 300k – 350k that would be a big concern for the economy.
Wednesday – July 20th:
- MBA Purchase Index: The MBA Purchase Index came in at 208.0.
- MBA Refinance Index: The MBA Refinance Index came in at 655.7.
Thursday – July 14th:
- Unemployment Claims: Weekly unemployment claims came in at 244,000 and continued claims came in at 1,331,000.
Wednesday – July 13th:
- MBA Purchase Index: The MBA Purchase Index came in at 224.3
- MBA Refinance Index: The MBA Refinance Index came in at 685.3.
Friday – July 8th
- Employment Report: The market was expecting an increase of 268,000 jobs and the report came in at 372,000 jobs were created last month. July 2022 mortgage rates remained below previous levels post report. The Unemployment rate came in at 3.6%
Thursday – July 7th:
- Unemployment Claims: Last week Unemployment Claims came in at 231,000 and this week the number of claims came in at 235,000. Continued claims came in 1,375,000.
Wednesday – July 6th:
- MBA Purchase Index: The MBA Purchase Index came in at 232.6
- MBA Refinance Index: The MBA Refinance Index came in at 670.3.
- ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: The market was expecting the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI to come in at 54.3 and the final report came in at 55.3.
Friday – July 1st:
- ISM Manufacturing PMI: Last month the ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 56.1 and this month it came in at 53.0. July 2022 mortgage rates were under pressure post report.
July 2022 Mortgage Rates In California – Average
We’ll update this section as we move further into July however to start off the month we’re seeing the following averages.
- The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 5.125%.
- The average 20-year fixed mortgage rate is 4.625%
- The average 15-year fixed rate is 4.375%.
This is an average of the July 2022 mortgage rates of everyone we’re seeing; from less than perfect credit to excellent credit. Please keep in mind that mortgage rates adjust daily; sometimes multiple times during the day. For a mortgage quote specific to your situation please be sure to contact us directly.
Mortgage-Backed Securities & Treasury Snapshot
July 25th – July 29th:
Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 4.0 started trading at the 98.42 level and the UMBS 4.5 coupon started at the 100.75 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the 2.80% level.
At the end of the week, Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 4.0 was at the 100.55 level and the UMBS 4.5 coupon was nearing the 101.85 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the 2.65% level.
July 18th – July 22nd:
Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 4.0 started trading at the 98.55 level and the UMBS 4.5 coupon started at the 100.08 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the 2.98% level.
At the end of the week, Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 4.0 was at the 99.44 level and the UMBS 4.5 coupon was nearing the 100.78 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the 2.75% level.
July 11th – July 15th:
Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 4.0 started trading at the 98.44 level and the UMBS 4.5 coupon started at the 100.25 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the 2.99% level.
At the end of the week, Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 4.0 was at the 98.72 level and the UMBS 4.5 coupon was nearing the 100.23 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the 2.91% level.
July 1st – July 8th:
Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 4.0 started trading at the 99.11 level and the UMBS 4.5 coupon started at the 100.7 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the 2.88% level.
At the end of the week, Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 4.0 was at the 98.23 level and the UMBS 4.5 coupon was nearing the 100.02 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the 3.08% level.
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