July 2023 mortgage rates are at risk of moving higher based on the trend we saw at the end of June. Stronger economic data and concern inflation will continue to run “hot” are the reasons why mortgage rates are moving higher.
Later this month, there is a Fed meeting, but before that, we get the PCE, Employment, and CPI reports. Most market experts agree that the Fed will probably raise at the end of July. The main question is, will that be the last, or will they follow through with one more hike?
Opportunities And Risks For July 2023 Mortgage Rates
Heading into July, rates are moving higher, but is there an opportunity for them to move lower? Absolutely, and it will just depend on the economic data that is about to come out. In the last year, we’ve seen mortgage rates top 7.00% two times, will there be a third time?
If the economic data comes in strong, there is a real risk that the market will make a sustained move above 7.00%. The Fed has been clear that they will do what it takes to bring down inflation, and if continues to be elevated (core inflation) they will most likely continue to raise and that would negatively impact mortgage rates.
July 2023 Mortgage Rate Forecast For California
Here are our latest July 2023 mortgage rate forecasts for California:
- 30-year fixed rates below 6.25%
- 20-year fixed rates below 6.00%
- 15-year fixed rates below 5.50%
Our July 2023 mortgage rate forecast is based on properties in California, a loan amount of $375,000, a primary home, excellent credit (780 or higher credit score), and a Loan-To-Value ratio below 60% (purchase transactions).
We may see days in which mortgage rates spike higher; however, overall, we believe there will be opportunities to lock a mortgage rate at or below these levels throughout the month of July.
The Fed And Mortgage Rates
I get asked this question a lot, “does the Fed set mortgage rates?” The quick answer is no, but they do have a significant influence over the bond market, where most mortgage rates originate.
Most mortgage rates originate in the Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) market. MBS is a bond market where traders buy and sell groups of mortgages (bonds). When prices go up, mortgage rates move lower. When prices go down, mortgage rates move higher.
The Fed can impact those prices in various ways, including rhetoric and policy initiatives.
The Job of A Loan Officer
Have you ever wondered what a loan officer does? A big-picture overview of what a loan officer does is this; obtain new business, provide quotes, answer questions, and process a loan applicant’s file.
It’s important to know that a loan officer is not an underwriter. An underwriter reviews the file the loan officer submits to them. Only an underwriter can approve or decline a file once it’s been submitted to underwriting.
Mortgage Rate And Payment Chart
Here is a quick reference guide to July 2023 mortgage rate possibilities in California (these are not quotes, just examples) and the payments associated with each level based on various conforming loan amounts. See our important disclosure below.
30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage
|Term||Loan Amount||Mortgage Rate||Payment|
20-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage
|Term||Loan Amount||Mortgage Rate||Payment|
15-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage
|Term||Loan Amount||Mortgage Rate||Payment|
Important disclosure: The above is not a mortgage rate quote, nor is it an offer to lend. It’s only a generic example of various mortgage rates, loan amounts, and payments. Our mortgage rate chart is meant to educate and inform our readers. The current mortgage rate market may be higher or lower than the examples listed in these mortgage rate charts. Also, mortgage rates can and often do adjust multiple times a day.
California Mortgage Calculator
Using a mortgage calculator to figure out your monthly payment is an essential part of buying a home in California or refinancing a current mortgage. Use our free mortgage calculator to help you determine what you can afford.
With our online mortgage calculator, you can also factor in your property tax amount along with your annual homeowner’s insurance amount with your monthly mortgage payment.
Our California mortgage calculator is free and easy to use.
And our mortgage calculator is especially helpful for those who want to impound their property taxes and property insurance into their monthly mortgage payment. If you have any questions about or California mortgage calculator, please don’t hesitate to ask.
Update Mortgage Guidelines July 2023
There are no significant updates to the July 2023 mortgage guidelines.
Economic Calendar For July 2023
Here we cover the daily economic events that might impact July 2023 mortgage rates. After the report comes out, we’ll update the post with that information and comment on if there is a potential impact on the Mortgage-Backed Securities market and consumer mortgage rates.
To start things off, we have the following report:
- ISM Manufacturing report
- ADP Employment
- ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
- BLS Employment report
Friday – July 28th:
- Core PCE Inflation: Last month, the Core PCE Inflation report came in at 4.60%, and this month, it came in at 4.10%
- Employment Costs: Q2 Employment Costs came in at a 1.00% increase which is lower than last quarter’s reading of 1.20%
Thursday – July 27th:
- Unemployment Claims: This week’s unemployment claims came in at 221,000, the market was expecting 235,000, and the last reading was at 228,000 claims.
- GDP Advance Q2: The market was anticipating the GDP report to come it at 1.80%; however, the report came in at 2.40%
Wednesday – July 26th:
- MBA Purchase Index: The MBA Purchase Index came in at 159.2.
- MBA Refinance Index: The MBA Refinance Index came in at 444.5.
- FOMC Meeting: The Fed raised the Fed Funds Rate to 5.50% (0.25% increase)
Thursday – July 20th:
- Unemployment Claims: This week’s unemployment claims came in at 228,000, the market was expecting 242,000, and the last reading was at 237,000 claims.
- Philly Fed Business Index: The Philly Fed Business Index declined -13.5 after last month’s reading of -13.7.
Wednesday – July 19th:
- MBA Purchase Index: The MBA Purchase Index came in at 163.2.
- MBA Refinance Index: The MBA Refinance Index came in at 446.4.
Tuesday – July 18th:
- Retail Sales: The market was anticipating a 0.5% increase in Retail Sales however, the reading came in at 0.2%
Friday – July 14th:
- Consumer Sentiment – Inflation Expectations: 1-year inflation expectations came in at 3.4%, and the 5-year expectations came in at 3.1%
- Consumer Sentiment: A big jump in Consumer Sentiment. Last month came in at 64.4, and this month it came in at 72.6.
Thursday – July 13th:
- Unemployment Claims: This week’s unemployment claims came in at 237,000, the market was expecting 250,000, and the last reading was at 249,000 claims.
- Producer Prices: The Producer Prices report was weaker than expected. The market anticipated 0.2%, and the report came in at 0.1%. Core Producer Prices came one 2.4% y/y and 0.1% m/m.
Wednesday – July 12th:
- MBA Purchase Index: The MBA Purchase Index came in at 166.3.
- MBA Refinance Index: The MBA Refinance Index came in at 416.
- CPI Report: The CPI report came in weaker than expected, which is good news for inflation and bonds. Headline CPI was 3.00% y/y and 0.2% m/m. Core CPI was 4.8% y/y and 0.2% m/m. July 2023 mortgage rates improved post-report.
Friday – July 7th:
- Employment Report: The market was expecting the jobs report to show 225,000 jobs created; however, the report came in below expectations at 209,000 jobs created. The unemployment rate came in at 3.6%, and earnings came in at a 0.4% increase.
Thursday – July 5th:
- ADP Jobs Report: The market was expecting 228,000 jobs created, and the report came in at 497,000 jobs created.
- ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: The monthly report came in at 53.9, and the market was expecting the report to come in at 51 after last month’s reading of 50.3.
Monday – July 3rd:
- ISM Manufacturing PMI Prices Paid: Last month, the ISM Manufacturing PMI report came in at 44.2, and this month it came in at 41.8 (market expectations were 44). July 2023 mortgage rates were not impacted post-report.
- ISM Manufacturing PMI: The market was expecting the ISM report to come in at 47, and the reading came in at 46.
July 2023 Mortgage Rates In California – Averages
We’ll update this section as we move further into July; however, to start off the month, we’re seeing the following averages.
- The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 6.375%.
- The average 20-year fixed mortgage rate is 6.25%
- The average 15-year fixed rate is 6.00%.
This is an average of the July 2023 mortgage rates of everyone we’re seeing, from less-than-perfect credit to excellent credit. Please keep in mind that mortgage rates adjust daily, sometimes multiple times during the day. For a mortgage quote specific to your situation, please be sure to contact us directly.
Mortgage-Backed Securities & Treasury Snapshot
July 1st – July 15th:
Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 4.5 started trading at the 95.75 level, and the UMBS 5.0 coupon started at the 97.66 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the 3.85% level.
At the end of the week, Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 4.5 was at the (pending) level, and the UMBS 5.0 coupon was nearing the 99.20 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the (pending) level.
July 16th – July 30th:
Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 4.5 started trading at the (pending) level, and the UMBS 5.0 coupon started at the (pending) level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the (pending) level.
At the end of the week, Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 4.5 was at the (pending) level, and the UMBS 5.0 coupon was nearing the (pending) level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the (pending) level.