July 2024 News And Events

It’s summer! Heading into the summer, the country was facing a heat wave, and worries over a strong hurricane season began to develop. With the Presidential election on everyone’s mind, few are paying attention to what is happening with mortgage rates. Several of the closely watched economic reports are starting to show weakness in the economy, and inflation is starting to move towards breaking that 3.00% barrier.

I’m not saying we’re going to see a dramatic move lower or higher, but something interesting is starting to develop with mortgage rates.

Opportunities And Risks For July 2024 Mortgage Rates

The opportunity for July 2024 mortgage rates to move lower rests on the CPI report that is due to come out the second week of July. Pay close attention to how the market reacts to that report. If there is a big rally post report, the following three to five days, then we may see a decent move lower with mortgage rates as we head into the second month of summer.

As always, a stronger economy and higher inflation are the biggest risks to mortgage rates.

K.O. Home Loan Solutions July 2024 Mortgage Rate Forecast

Here are our latest July 2024 mortgage rate forecasts for California:

  • 30-year fixed rates below 7.00%
  • 20-year fixed rates below 6.75%
  • 15-year fixed rates below 6.625%

K.O Home Solutions July 2024 mortgage rate forecast is based on properties in California, a loan amount of $350,000, a primary home, excellent credit (740 or higher credit score), and a Loan-To-Value ratio below 60% (purchase transactions).

We may see days in which mortgage rates spike higher; however, we believe there will be opportunities to lock a mortgage rate at or below these levels throughout July.

Homes in Sacramento

Mortgage Rate And Payment Chart

Here is a quick reference guide to July 2024 mortgage rate possibilities in California (these are not quotes, just examples) and the payments associated with each level based on various conforming loan amounts. See our important disclosure below.

30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage

TermLoan AmountMortgage RatePayment
30-year fixed$380,0007.00%$2,528.15
30-year fixed$480,0007.00%$3,193.45
30-year fixed$580,0007.00%$3,858.75
30-year fixed$680,0005.00%$4,524.06

Important disclosure: The above is not a mortgage rate quote nor an offer to lend. It’s only a generic example of various mortgage rates, loan amounts, and payments. Our mortgage rate chart is meant to educate and inform our readers. The current mortgage rate market may be higher or lower than the examples listed in these mortgage rate charts. Also, mortgage rates can and often do adjust multiple times a day. 

K.O. Home Loan Solution’s Mortgage Calculator

Using a mortgage calculator to determine your monthly payment is essential to buying a home in California or refinancing a current mortgage. Our free mortgage calculator can help you determine what you can afford.

With our online mortgage calculator, you can also factor in your property tax and annual homeowner’s insurance into your monthly mortgage payment (as well as your HOA dues, if applicable).

Advanced Mortgage Calculator For City Pages

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Our California mortgage calculator is free and easy to use.

Our mortgage calculator is especially helpful for those wanting to include their property taxes and insurance in their monthly mortgage payment. If you have any questions about our California mortgage calculator, please don’t hesitate to ask.

Economic Calendar For July 2024

Here, we cover the daily economic events that might impact July 2024 mortgage rates. After the report comes out, we’ll update the post with that information and comment on whether there is a potential impact on the Mortgage-Backed Securities market and consumer mortgage rates.

To start things off, we have the following report:

Thursday – July 25th

  • Unemployment Claims: PENDING

Wednesday – July 24th

  • MBA Purchase Index: The MBA Purchase Index came in at PENDING
  • MBA Refinance Index: The MBA Refinance Index came in at PENDING

Thursday – July 18th

  • Unemployment Claims: Weekly unemployment claims came in at 243,000, and continued claims came in at 1,867,000.

Wednesday – July 17th

  • MBA Purchase Index: The MBA Purchase Index came in at 140.4.
  • MBA Refinance Index: The MBA Refinance Index came in at 613.0.

Tuesday – July 16th

  • Retail Sales: The closely watched Retail Sales report came in at 0.0%.

Friday – July 12th

  • Core Producer Prices: The Core Producer Prices report came in at 0.4% (month/month).

Thursday – July 11th

  • Unemployment Claims: Weekly unemployment claims came in at 222,000, and continued claims came in at 1,852,000.
  • CORE CPI: The year/year CORE CPI reading came in at 3.3%, and the month/month CORE CPI reading came in at 0.1%.

Wednesday – July 10th

  • MBA Purchase Index: The MBA Purchase Index came in at 532.3.
  • MBA Refinance Index: The MBA Refinance Index came in at 144.3.

Friday – July 5th

  • Employment Report: The market expected the jobs report to show 190,000 jobs created. However, the reading came in higher, showing 206,000 jobs created. The unemployment rate came in at 4.1% (the market expected 4%), and earnings came in at a 0.3% increase (the market was expecting a 0.3% increase). July 2024 mortgage rates moved lower after the report came out.

Thursday – July 4th

  • Bond markets closed for the July 4th holiday.

Wednesday – July 3rd

  • MBA Purchase Index: The MBA Purchase Index came in at 142.9.
  • MBA Refinance Index: The MBA Refinance Index came in at 544.1.
  • ADP Jobs Report: The ADP Jobs report came in at 150,000 and pre-report estimates were 160,000.
  • Challenger Layoffs: The Challenger Layoff report came in at 48,786, which is lower than last month’s report of 63,816.
  • Unemployment Claims: Weekly unemployment claims came in at 238,000, and continued claims came in at 1,858,000.

Tuesday – July 2nd

  • JOLTS Report: The JOLTS report showed 8,140,000 job openings, whereas the market was expecting the report to show 7,910,000. July 2024 mortgage rates remained stable.

Mortgage-Backed Securities & Treasury Snapshot

Here are the two-week opening and closing levels of Mortgage-Backed Securities and the 10-year Treasury Yield.

July 1st – July 15th:

Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 4.5 started trading at the 93.64 level, and the UMBS 5.0 coupon started at the 96.14 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the 4.46% level.

At the end of the week, Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 4.5 was at the 95.38 level, and the UMBS 5.0 coupon was nearing the 97.70 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the 4.23% level.

July 16th – July 30th:

Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 4.5 started trading at the 95.74 level, and the UMBS 5.0 coupon started at the PENDING level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the 4.15% level.

At the end of the week, Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 4.5 was at the PENDING level, and the UMBS 5.0 coupon was nearing the 98.06 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the PENDING level.

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Loan Officer Kevin O'Connor

About The Author

Loan Officer Kevin O'Connor has over 17 years of experience as a Mortgage Loan Originator and is a trusted resource for mortgage education and information. He's the content creator of K.O. Home Loan Solutions and is licensed by the state of California and the Nationwide Mortgage Licensing System. He has a top rating with the Better Business Bureau, Google, Yelp, and Zillow. You can contact him at 1-800-550-5538. CA DRE #01499872 / NMLS #247447