June 2021 mortgage rates for both purchase and refinance transactions remain stable heading into the first month of summer. Concerns over inflation have put pressure on mortgage rates over the last three months. Will we continue to see high inflation data in June or will the inflation data start to show signs that prices are leveling out?
Our first bit of inflation data will be on June 1st (ISM Manufacturing PMI) and later in the week the monthly jobs report is released (wage increase is the data point to watch).
If we start to see further increases in inflation we might see mortgage rates move higher. If the data is stable or slightly lower (the most likely scenario) then mortgage rates might continue to trend at current levels.
Opportunities And Risks For June 2021
Opportunities for June 2021 mortgage rates to move significantly lower are almost non-existent. The market is concerned about rising inflation, which is bad for mortgage rates. Even if we see data that shows a significant drop in inflation it is unlikely that lenders will aggressively lower mortgage rates.
The reason is simple; one or two data points is not a trend and until that “lower inflation” trend is established lenders will remain cautious.
The risk to June 2021 mortgage rates is that inflation continues to rise. If we see strong inflation data this month that could easily push mortgage rates significantly higher.
June 2021 Mortgage Rate Forecast For California
Here are our latest June 2021 mortgage rate forecasts for California:
- 30-year fixed rates below 3.00%
- 20-year fixed rates below 2.75%
- 15-year fixed rates below 2.375%
Our June 2021 mortgage rate forecast is based on properties in California, a loan amount of $350,000, a primary home, excellent credit (740 or higher credit score), and a Loan-To-Value ratio below 60% (purchase transactions).
We may see days in which mortgage rates spike higher however overall we believe there will be opportunities to lock a mortgage rate at or below these levels throughout the month of June.
Mortgage Rate And Payment Chart
Here is a quick reference guide to June 2021 mortgage rate possibilities in California (these are not quotes; just examples) and the payments associated with each level based on various conforming loan amounts. See our important disclosure below.
30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage:
|Term||Loan Amount||Mortgage Rate||Payment|
20-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage:
|Term||Loan Amount||Mortgage Rate||Payment|
15-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage:
|Term||Loan Amount||Mortgage Rate||Payment|
Important Disclosure For June 2021 mortgage rates: The above is not a mortgage rate quote; nor is it an offer to lend. It’s only a generic example of various mortgage rates, loan amounts, and payments. Our mortgage rate chart is meant to educate and inform our readers. The current June 2021 mortgage rate market may be higher or lower than the examples listed in these mortgage rate charts. Also; mortgage rates can and often do adjust multiple times a day.
California Mortgage Calculator
Using a mortgage calculator to figure out your monthly payment is an essential part of buying a home in California or refinancing a current mortgage. Use our free mortgage calculator to help you determine what you can afford.
With our online mortgage calculator, you can also factor in your property tax amount along with your annual homeowner’s insurance amount with your monthly mortgage payment.
Our California mortgage calculator is free and easy to use.
And our mortgage calculator is especially helpful for those who want to impound their property taxes and property insurance into their monthly mortgage payment. If you have any questions about or California mortgage calculator please don’t hesitate to ask.
Update Mortgage Guidelines June 2021
Heading into the month of June guidelines remain the same and if anything new comes out we’ll update this section.
Economic Calendar For June 2021
Here we cover the daily economic events that might impact mortgage rates. After the report comes out we’ll update the post with that information and comment on if there is a potential impact on the Mortgage-Backed Securities market and consumer mortgage rates.
To start things off we have:
- ISM Manufacturing report
- ADP Employment (sometimes comes out the day before the 1st of the month)
- ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
- BLS Employment report
Thursday – June 24th:
- Weekly Jobless Claims: The weekly jobless claims were expected to come in at 386,000 claims and the report showed 411,000 claims. Continued claims came in at 3,390,000 claims.
Wednesday – June 23rd:
- MBA Purchase and MBA Refinance Index: The MBA Purchase Index increased this week, from 266.3. to 268.0. The MBA Refinance Index increased from 3026.6 to 3110.3.
Tuesday – June 22nd:
- Existing Home Sales: Last month the Existing Home Sales report came in at 5,850,000 units (annual rate) and this month the report came in at 5,800,000 units (annual rate).
Thursday – June 17th:
- Weekly Jobless Claims: The weekly jobless claims were expected to come in at 380,000 claims and the report showed 412,000 claims. Continued claims came in at 3,518,000 claims.
Wednesday – June 16th:
- MBA Purchase and MBA Refinance Index: The MBA Purchase Index increased this week, from 262.1 to 266.3. The MBA Refinance Index increased from 2869.2 to 3026.6.
- FMOC Decision: The Fed announced they were going to continue to move forward with no major policy changes. However, future expectations for rate hikes increased and that was bad for mortgage rates. Bonds sold off and June 2021 mortgage moved higher.
Tuesday – June 15th:
- Core Producer Prices: Expectations were for a 4.8% reading and that’s exactly where the report came in at.
- Retail Sales: For April the Retail Sales number was flat and in May it declined 1.8%. June 2021 mortgage rates responded well to the report.
- NAHB: The NAHB report came in at 81 after last month’s reading of 83.
Thursday – June 10th:
- Core CPI: The Core CPI report came in much “hotter” than expected (3.8% vs 3.4%) and the initial June 2021 mortgage rate reaction was to move higher. However by the afternoon, the bond market reversed course, and mortgage rates moved back to previous levels.
- Weekly Jobless Claims: The weekly jobless claims were expected to come in at 360,000 claims and the report showed 376,000 claims. Continued claims came in at 3,466,000 claims.
Wednesday – June 9th:
- MBA Purchase and MBA Refinance Index: The MBA Purchase Index increased this week, from 261.4. to 262.1. The MBA Refinance Index decreased from 3022 to 2869.2. June 2021 mortgage rates remained stable post report.
Friday – June 4th:
- Monthly BLS Employment Report: The market is expecting the jobs report to show 650,000 jobs were created in May and an unemployment rate is expected to come in at 5.9% (which is lower than the 6.1% level from April). Wages are expected to increase 0.2% after last month’s increase of 0.7%. June 2021 mortgage rates might be impacted post jobs report if the actual report is significantly different from market expectations (see below for an update on the final numbers for May)
Thursday – June 3rd:
- Weekly Jobless Claims: The weekly jobless claims were expected to come in at 390,000 claims and they came in at 385,000 claims. Continued claims were expected to come in at 3,615,000 claims and the report showed 3,771,000 continued claims.
- ADP Employment Report: While not as important as the monthly BLS jobs report, the ADP report can influence market movement. The market is expecting the report to show 650,000 jobs created however the ADP Employment Report came in above expectations (978k). June 2021 mortgage rates remained stable post report.
Wednesday – June 2nd:
- MBA Purchase and MBA Refinance Index: The MBA Purchase Index declined this week, from 269.8 to 261.4. The MBA Refinance Index decreased from 3168.8 to 3022. There was no immediate impact to June 2021 mortgage rates post report.
Monday – June 1st:
- ISM Manufacturing PMI: Expectations were for the report to come in at 60.9 however it came in at 61.2 (last month it was 60.7). June 2021 mortgage rates were stable post report.
- Construction Spending: Last month Construction spending increased 0.2% and in the most recent report it also came in at an increase of 0.2%.
Mortgage Rates And The Monthly Jobs Report
The market is expecting non-farm payrolls to come in at 650,000 jobs created which is well above the 266,000 number that came in last month.
Expectations for the unemployment rate are at 5.9% and earnings to come in at 0.2%. Once the report is out we’ll update the post and how it might impact June 2021 mortgage rates.
The jobs report was a bit weaker than expected and post report bonds rallied. The report showed 559,000 jobs were created, earnings came in at .5 and the unemployment rate came in at 5.8%.
Post report June 2021 mortgage rates remained stable.
June 2021 Mortgage Rates In California – Average
We’ll update this section as we move further into June however to start off the month we’re seeing the following averages.
- The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 2.875%.
- The average 20-year fixed mortgage rate is 2.625%
- The average 15-year fixed rate is 2.125%.
This is an average of everyone we’re seeing; from less than perfect credit to excellent credit. Please keep in mind that mortgage rates adjust daily; sometimes multiple times during a day. For a mortgage quote specific to your situation please be sure to contact us directly.
Mortgage-Backed Securities & Treasury Snapshot
June 21st – June 30th:
Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 2.0 started the week at the 100.50 level and the UMBS 2.5 coupon started at the 103.03 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the 1.49% level to start the week.
At the end of the week, Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 2.0 was at the (pending) level and the UMBS 2.5 coupon was nearing the (pending) level. The 10y Treasury yield was at (pending).
June 14th – June 18th:
Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 2.0 started the week at the 101.17 level and the UMBS 2.5 coupon started at the 103.55 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the 1.46% level to start the week.
At the end of the week, Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 2.0 was at the 100.27 level and the UMBS 2.5 coupon was nearing the 102.81 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at 1.50%.
June 7th – June 11th:
Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 2.0 started the week at the 100.95 level and the UMBS 2.5 coupon started at the 103.47 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the 1.57% level to start the week.
At the end of the week, Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 2.0 was at the 101.20 level and the UMBS 2.5 coupon was nearing the 103.66 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at 1.46%.
June 1st – June 4th:
Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 2.0 started the week at the 101.02 level and the UMBS 2.5 coupon started at the 103.58 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the 1.62% level to start the week.
At the end of the week, Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 2.0 was at the 101.06 level and the UMBS 2.5 coupon was nearing the 103.58 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at 1.58%.
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