Mortgage rates for March 06, 2019 are starting the day at similar levels to yesterday as both Mortgage Backed Securities and Treasuries start the day near yesterday’s levels. It seemed like bonds might stage a rally this morning however that quickly reversed after the ADP Employment Report came out (more on that below). It’s unlikely we’ll see a significant move with mortgage rates today or tomorrow. With Friday’s BLS Employment just a few days away mortgage rates will most likely remain in a holding pattern until then. There is always the chance that a news story comes up that changes the direction of mortgage rates; if that happens today we’ll certainly let our readers know.
Mortgage Backed Securities and Treasury Snapshot:
Mortgage Backed Security Coupon FNMA 4.0 opened the day at the 101.31 level and the 10y Treasury opened at the 2.71% level. Just prior to the ADP Employment report bonds continued to improve and the FNMA 4.0 was back above 102.00.
FHA Mortgage Rates
Mortgage Rate Afternoon Update:
Lead by the 10y Treasury; Mortgage Backed Securities are rallying as we move into the afternoon. The good news is that both the 10y yield and the FNMA 4.0 are back in their previous ranges which is a positive for mortgage rates heading into Thursday. Why the rally? Not exactly clear yet and it could be just a bond market technical move as traders may feel the selling in bonds last week was over done.
Economic Data – This Week:
Today we have the ADP Employment report and weekly Mortgage Market Index data, Thursday we have Labor Costs and Productivity along with Consumer Credit. On Friday we have the BLS Employment report, Wholesale Inventories and Wholesale Sales. Next week we have three big reports: Retail Sales, Durable Goods and CPI (Consumer Price Index). If you had to pick one of the three to watch (stress had to) then you’ll want to keep an eye on the CPI. Next would be Retail Sales (last report was abysmal) and then Durable Goods.
ADP Employment Report and Mortgage Rates:
At first glance this morning’s report might not seem that big of a deal. And usually ADP has little to no affect on bond markets and mortgage rates. Expectations were for 189,000 jobs created and the reading came in at 183,000 jobs created. No big deal right? That is until you look at the revisions for last month. The report from last month initially came in at 213,000 jobs created however that was revised today to 300,000 jobs created. That 300k number caused bond traders to back off on the early morning rally and one of the main reasons why mortgage rates will start the day at similar levels to yesterday. As mentioned in several other posts; the BLS Employment report the last two months has been stellar. The revisions to the this mornings ADP report are sparking concerns that there may be another stellar report from BLS on Friday. If it is another great report that might put pressure on mortgage rates to move up.
Mortgage Market Index and Mortgage Rates:
Last week was a good week for the Mortgage Market Index; across the board increases. This weeks report is not like that; in fact it’s the exact opposite. Both Purchase applications and Refinance applications declined as well as the overall index. The Purchase index came in at 240.5; down from last weeks level of 247.0. The Refinance index came in at 1110.9, down from last weeks level of 1133,8. And the overall index came in at 357.3; down from last weeks levels of 384.8. This survey from the Mortgage Bankers Association of America covers all applications during the week, conventional and government loan products. And it covers both Fixed Rate Mortgages and Adjustable Rate Mortgages as well.
Mortgage Rate Friendly Comments From The ECB:
What does the European Central Bank have to do with mortgage rates? Let’s be clear – the ECB does not have a direct effect on mortgage rates but they do have an influence on bond trading in the United States. Every now and then the ECB says things that are positive for bonds and negative for bonds. This mornings comments (lowering inflation target and lowering outlook) were bond friendly since they indicate the European economy is slowing more than expected. And if the European economy is slowing more than expected that ultimately might signal how the US economy is doing.
Currently We Are Seeing:
30 year fixed mortgage rates below 4.50%, 20 year fixed mortgage rates below 4.375% and 15 year fixed rates below 3.875%. 30 year fixed FHA mortgage rates are below 4.375%.
Please keep in mind that mortgage rates adjust daily; sometimes they adjust multiple times in a day when the bond market is volatile. Also things like obtaining cash out, lower credit scores, higher Loan-To-Value ratios, rental properties and the subordination of a second mortgage will cause in an increase in your mortgage rate. To obtain the most up-to-date quote specific to your loan scenario be sure to contact Loan Officer Kevin O’Connor at 1-800-550-5538 or you can submit a “Contact Us” request on the our website.
JB Mortgage Capital, Inc.:
We offer industry low mortgage rates for both refinance and purchase transactions, personal one-on-one service and we have an A+ rating with the Better Business Bureau (BBB). We also have a top rating with the Business Consumers Alliance (AAA). We utilize the latest technology to ensure a fast closing and Loan Officer Kevin O’Connor has over 14 years of experience as a mortgage professional. You can contact him directly at 1-800-550-5538.