March 2023 News And Events

March 2023 is expected to be an interesting month. After a month of stronger-than-inflation economic data, will inflation data in March cool or continue to move higher? Mid-month, we have a Fed meeting, and most investors are anticipating the Fed to raise 0.25% to 0.50%. However, if the inflation reports come in hotter than expected, investors may start to call on the Fed to raise 0.75%.

Opportunities And Risks For March 2023 Mortgage Rates

Nothing new here, hotter inflation is the biggest risk for mortgage rates this month. Keep an eye on the Employment, ISM, and CPI report. Is there an opportunity for mortgage rates to improve in March? Absolutely! But I would not expect it considering the move in interest rates over the last 12 months.

March 2023 Mortgage Rate Forecast For California

Here are our latest March 2023 mortgage rate forecasts for California:

  • 30-year fixed rates below 5.50%
  • 20-year fixed rates below 5.375%
  • 15-year fixed rates below 5.00%

Our March 2023 mortgage rate forecast is based on properties in California, a loan amount of $350,000, a primary home, excellent credit (740 or higher credit score), and a Loan-To-Value ratio below 60% (purchase transactions).

We may see days in which mortgage rates spike higher however, overall, we believe there will be opportunities to lock a mortgage rate at or below these levels throughout the month of March.

First Home

Mortgage Rate And Payment Chart

Here is a quick reference guide to March 2023 mortgage rate possibilities in California (these are not quotes; just examples) and the payments associated with each level based on various conforming loan amounts. See our important disclosure below.

30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage

TermLoan AmountMortgage RatePayment
30-year fixed$375,0005.00%$2,013.08
30-year fixed$475,0005.00%$2,549.90
30-year fixed$575,0005.00%$3,086.72
30-year fixed$675,0005.00%$3,623.55

20-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage

TermLoan AmountMortgage RatePayment
20-year fixed$375,0004.75%$2,423.34
20-year fixed$475,0004.75%$3,069.56
20-year fixed$575,0004.75%$3,715.79
20-year fixed$675,0004.75%$4,362.01

15-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage

TermLoan AmountMortgage RatePayment
15-year fixed$375,0004.50%$2,868.72
15-year fixed$475,0004.50%$3,633.72
15-year fixed$575,0004.50%$4,398.71
15-year fixed$675,0004.75%$5,163.70

Important disclosure: The above is not a mortgage rate quote, nor is it an offer to lend. It’s only a generic example of various mortgage rates, loan amounts, and payments. Our mortgage rate chart is meant to educate and inform our readers. The current mortgage rate market may be higher or lower than the examples listed in these mortgage rate charts. Also, mortgage rates can and often do adjust multiple times a day. 

California Mortgage Calculator

Using a mortgage calculator to figure out your monthly payment is an essential part of buying a home in California or refinancing a current mortgage. Use our free mortgage calculator to help you determine what you can afford.

With our online mortgage calculator, you can also factor in your property tax amount along with your annual homeowner’s insurance amount with your monthly mortgage payment.

Advanced Mortgage Calculator For City Pages

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Our California mortgage calculator is free and easy to use.

And our mortgage calculator is especially helpful for those who want to impound their property taxes and property insurance into their monthly mortgage payment. If you have any questions about or California mortgage calculator, please don’t hesitate to ask.

Update Mortgage Guidelines March 2023

Update – the Federal Housing Finance Agency issued an update on the DTI fee they were assessing new loans. The implementation of the new fee has been delayed until August 2023.

Economic Calendar For March 2023

Here we cover the daily economic events that might impact March 2023 mortgage rates. After the report comes out, we’ll update the post with that information and comment on if there is a potential impact on the Mortgage-Backed Securities market and consumer mortgage rates.

To start things off, we have the following report:

Thursday – March 30th:

  • Unemployment Claims: This week, the unemployment claims came in at 198,000, and Continued Claims came in at 1,689,000.

Wednesday – March 29th:

  • MBA Purchase Index: The MBA Purchase Index came in at 172.7.
  • MBA Refinance Index: The MBA Refinance Index came in at 504.4.

Thursday – March 23rd:

  • Unemployment Claims: This week, the unemployment claims came in at 191,000, and Continued Claims came in at 1,694,000.

Wednesday – March 22nd:

  • MBA Purchase Index: The MBA Purchase Index came in at 169.3.
  • MBA Refinance Index: The MBA Refinance Index came in at 481.3.

Thursday – March 16th:

  • Philly Fed Index: A big miss in the Philly Fed Index. The market was expecting a decline of -15.6; however, the report came in with a decline of -23.2.
  • Unemployment Claims: This week, the unemployment claims came in at 192,000, and Continued Claims came in at 1,684,000.

Wednesday – March 15th:

  • MBA Purchase Index: The MBA Purchase Index came in at 165.6.
  • MBA Refinance Index: The MBA Refinance Index came in at 458.9.
  • Retail Sales: Last month, the Retail Sales report declined by 3.0%. This month it tanked to -0.4% (worse than market expectations).
  • Core Producer Prices: The CPP report came in at 4.4%, and the market was expecting 5.2% (a big miss, and good news for inflation).

Tuesday – March 14th:

  • CPI Report: Headline CPI came in at 6.0% y/y, and m/m came in at 0.4% (both in line with market expectations). CORE CPI came in at 5.5% y/y, and m/m came in at 0.4% (in line with market expectations).

Friday – March 10th:

  • Employment Report: The monthly employment report came in at 311,000 jobs created, Average Earnings of 0.2, and an unemployment rate of 3.6%.

Thursday – March 9th:

  • Unemployment Claims: The unemployment claims number came in at 211,000, and the Continued Claims report came in at 1,718,000.

Wednesday – March 8th:

  • MBA Purchase Index: The MBA Purchase Index came in at 154.4.
  • MBA Refinance Index: The MBA Refinance Index came in at 437.9.
  • ADP Jobs Report: The market was expecting 200,000 jobs created, and the report came in at 242,000 jobs created. The report had no impact on March 2023 mortgage rates.

Friday – March 3rd:

  • ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: The monthly report came in at 55.1, and the market was expecting the report to come in at 54.5.

Thursday – March 2nd:

  • Unemployment Claims: Weekly unemployment claims came in at 190,000, and continued claims came in at 1,655,000.

Wednesday – March 1st:

  • MBA Purchase Index: The MBA Purchase Index came in at 138.8.
  • MBA Refinance Index: The MBA Refinance Index came in at 444.00.
  • ISM Manufacturing PMI: Last month, the ISM Manufacturing PMI report came in at 47.4, and this month it came in at 47.7.

March 2023 Mortgage Rates In California – Averages

We’ll update this section as we move further into March; however, to start off the month, we’re seeing the following averages.

  • The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 6.00%.
  • The average 20-year fixed mortgage rate is 5.75%
  • The average 15-year fixed rate is 5.50%.

This is an average of the March 2023 mortgage rates of everyone we’re seeing, from less-than-perfect credit to excellent credit. Please keep in mind that mortgage rates adjust daily, sometimes multiple times during the day. For a mortgage quote specific to your situation, please be sure to contact us directly.

Mortgage-Backed Securities & Treasury Snapshot

March 1st – March 10th:

Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 4.5 started trading at the 95.70 level, and the UMBS 5.0 coupon started at the 97.75 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the 3.99% level.

At the end of the week, Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 4.5 was at the 96.63 level, and the UMBS 5.0 coupon was nearing the 98.42 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the 3.69% level.

March 13th – March 17th:

Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 4.5 started trading at the 97.47 level, and the UMBS 5.0 coupon started at the 99.13 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the 3.57% level.

At the end of the week, Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 4.5 was at the 98.09 level, and the UMBS 5.0 coupon was nearing the 99.73 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the 3.43% level.

March 20th – March 24th:

Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 4.5 started trading at the 97.53 level, and the UMBS 5.0 coupon started at the 99.27 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the 3.49% level.

At the end of the week, Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 4.5 was at the 98.39 level, and the UMBS 5.0 coupon was nearing the 100.05 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the 3.38% level.

March 27th – March 31st:

Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 4.5 started trading at the 97.64 level, and the UMBS 5.0 coupon started at the 99.44 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the 3.53% level.

At the end of the week, Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 4.5 was at the 97.84 level, and the UMBS 5.0 coupon was nearing the 99.69 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the 3.47% level.

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Loan Officer Kevin O'Connor

About The Author

Loan Officer Kevin O'Connor has over 17 years of experience as a Mortgage Loan Originator and is a trusted resource for mortgage education and information. He's licensed by the state of California and the Nationwide Mortgage Licensing System. He has a top rating with the Better Business Bureau, Google, Yelp, and Zillow. You can contact him at 1-800-550-5538. CA DRE #01499872 / NMLS #247447