Last month, it seemed the worst-case scenario for mortgage rates was playing out; inflation was rebounding and moving higher, and so were mortgage rates. Then, something happened, and the market shifted in the last few days of February.
Market participants started to embrace the idea that the most recent data was more likely a one-off rather than a new trend of higher inflation and mortgage rates. Only time will tell which argument is correct.
Opportunities And Risks For March 2024 Mortgage Rates
Last month could not end fast enough for the mortgage industry. There is an opportunity for mortgage rates to improve as we move into March, but expectations for a big move lower will probably be wrong. Significant risks remain to the bond market and mortgage rates.
Keep an eye on the Employment, CPI, and PCE reports. If these reports are stronger than anticipated, then bond markets will sell off, and mortgage rates will move higher.
K.O. Home Loan Solutions March 2024 Mortgage Rate Forecast
Here are our latest March 2024 mortgage rate forecasts for California:
- 30-year fixed rates below 6.50%
- 20-year fixed rates below 6.375%
- 15-year fixed rates below 6.125%
K.O Home Solutions March 2024 mortgage rate forecast is based on properties in California, a loan amount of $350,000, a primary home, excellent credit (740 or higher credit score), and a Loan-To-Value ratio below 60% (purchase transactions).
We may see days in which mortgage rates spike higher; however, overall, we believe there will be opportunities to lock a mortgage rate at or below these levels throughout the month of March.
Mortgage Rate And Payment Chart
Here is a quick reference guide to California’s March 2024 mortgage rate possibilities (these are not quotes, just examples) and the payments associated with each level based on various conforming loan amounts. See our important disclosure below.
30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage
| Term | Loan Amount | Mortgage Rate | Payment |
| 30-year fixed | $380,000 | 6.375% | $2,370.71 |
| 30-year fixed | $480,000 | 6.375% | $2,994.58 |
| 30-year fixed | $580,000 | 6.375% | $3,618.45 |
| 30-year fixed | $680,000 | 6.375% | $4,242.32 |
Important disclosure: The above is not a mortgage rate quote, nor is it an offer to lend. It’s only a generic example of various mortgage rates, loan amounts, and payments. Our mortgage rate chart is meant to educate and inform our readers. The current mortgage rate market may be higher or lower than the examples listed in these mortgage rate charts. Also, mortgage rates can and often do adjust multiple times a day.
California Mortgage Calculator
Using a mortgage calculator to determine your monthly payment is an essential part of buying a home in California or refinancing a current mortgage. Our free mortgage calculator can help you decide what you can afford.
With our online mortgage calculator, you can also factor in your property tax and annual homeowner’s insurance into your monthly mortgage payment (as well as your HOA dues, if applicable).
Our California mortgage calculator is free and easy to use.
Our mortgage calculator benefits those who want to include their property taxes and insurance in their monthly mortgage payment. If you have any questions about our California mortgage calculator, please don’t hesitate to ask.
Economic Calendar For March 2024
Here, we cover the daily economic events that might impact March 2024 mortgage rates. After the report comes out, we’ll update the post with that information and comment on whether there is a potential impact on the Mortgage-Backed Securities market and consumer mortgage rates.
To start things off, we have the following report:
- ISM Manufacturing report
- ADP Employment
- ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
- BLS Employment report
Thursday – March 28th
- Unemployment Claims: Weekly unemployment claims came in at 210,000, and continuing claims came in at 1,819,000.00.
- Chicago PMI: The monthly Chicago PMI report came in at 41.4, up from 44.0 last month.
Wednesday – March 27th
- MBA Purchase Index: The MBA Purchase Index came in at 145.7.
- MBA Refinance Index: The MBA Refinance Index came in at 460.9.
Thursday – March 21st
- Unemployment Claims: Weekly unemployment claims came in at 210,000, and continuing claims came in at 1,807,000.00.
Wednesday – March 20th
- MBA Purchase Index: The MBA Purchase Index came in at 147.7.
- MBA Refinance Index: The MBA Refinance Index came in at 480.3.
Thursday – March 14th
- Core Producer Prices: The monthly Core Producer Prices report came in at 0.3%, compared to forecasts of 0.2%. The previous reading was 0.5%.
- Unemployment Claims: Weekly unemployment claims came in at 209,000, and continuing claims came in at 1,811,000.00.
- Retail Sales: The Retail Sales report came in at 0.6%, and forecasts were for a reading of 0.8%.
Wednesday – March 13th
- MBA Purchase Index: The MBA Purchase Index came in at 147.7.
- MBA Refinance Index: The MBA Refinance Index came in at 480.3.
Friday – March 8th
- Employment Report: The market was expecting the jobs report to show 200,000 jobs created, and the market was expecting the report to show 200,000 jobs created. The unemployment rate came in at 3.9% (the market expected 3.7%), and earnings came in at a 0.61% increase (the market was expecting a 0.3% increase). March 2024 mortgage rates were stable post-report.
Thursday – March 7th
- Challenger Layoffs: The Challenger Layoff report came in at 84,638, which is higher than last month’s report of 82,307.
- Unemployment Claims: Weekly unemployment claims came in at 217,000, and continued claims came in at 1,906,000.
Wednesday – March 6th
- MBA Purchase Index: The MBA Purchase Index came in at 141.1.
- MBA Refinance Index: The MBA Refinance Index came in at 428.1.
- JOLTS Report: The JOLTS report showed 8,863,000 job openings, whereas the market was expecting the report to show 8,900,000.
Mortgage-Backed Securities & Treasury Snapshot
Here are Mortgage-Backed Securities’s two-week opening and closing levels and the 10-year Treasury Yield.
March 1st – March 15th:
Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 4.5 started trading at the 94.97 level, and the UMBS 5.0 coupon started at the 97.30 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the 4.18%% level.
At the end of the week, Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 4.5 was at the 94.48 level, and the UMBS 5.0 coupon was nearing the 96.86 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the 4.31% level.
March 16th – March 31st:
Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 4.5 started trading at the 94.34 level, and the UMBS 5.0 coupon started at the 96.72 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the 4.32% level.
At the end of the week, Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 4.5 was at the 95.26 level, and the UMBS 5.0 coupon was nearing the 97.59 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the 4.20% level.
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