Mortgage rates for May 13, 2019 are at improved levels as the United States and China increase tariffs. This escalation of the trade war is not what the market has been planning on for the last 4-6 weeks. In April there were repeated statements from the President and his staff that the end was near and deal was “weeks away”.
Now it appears things are getting worse which means this trade war could last a long time.
FHA Mortgage Rates
Jumbo Mortgage Rates
Mortgage Backed Securities and Treasury Snapshot:
Mortgage Backed Security FNMA 4.0 started the day at 102.77, and FNMA 3.5 was at 101.20. The 10y Treasury yield opened the day at 2.42%. As you can see the 10y yield keeps moving lower which is good news but not great news for mortgage rates. When the 10y yield keeps moving down (rather than remaining stable) that concerns Mortgage Backed Security investors and mortgage lenders that a big reversal is on the way. Ideally we would like to see the 10y yield flatten out for a week or two so that MBS investors and mortgage lenders feel more confident that this rally will hold.
Mortgage Rates This Week:
Long time readers know that predicting mortgage rates is difficult at best. A better way to approach to understanding future mortgage rate moves is evaluating what could cause mortgage rates to move higher, lower or sideways. Why is this a better way? Because it will enable you to have a better understanding of what is going on the market and the market’s possible reaction (which ultimately dictates the direction of mortgage rates).
The three main drivers of the bond market and mortgage rates are as follow:
- Trade war with China
- US Economic data
- European Economic data
Depending on the week one is more important than the other two. Simply put; positive news is bad for mortgage rates and negative news is good for mortgage rates. Please know that is a very broad stroke and that it doesn’t always stay true. But to get a basis to work from; that would be a good starting point.
So moving forward the market will probably react to news and that reaction will continue to formulate how mortgage rates move. Currently (meaning Monday morning) mortgage rates are slightly leaning towards improvement but that can change in an instant if a trade deal is reached (or progress is made); or an economic report comes in stronger than expected or news out of Europe that shows their economy is not as bad as expected.
Economic Data This Week:
On Tuesday we have Import and Export Prices. On Wednesday we have the weekly Mortgage Market Index, NAHB Housing Index and the Retail Sales report. On Thursday we have Building Permits, Housing Starts and the Philly Fed Business Index. On Friday we have the 1yr and 5yr Inflation Outlook report.
JB Mortgage Capital, Inc.:
We offer industry low mortgage rates for both refinance and purchase transactions, personal one-on-one service and we have an A+ rating with the Better Business Bureau (BBB). We also have a top rating with the Business Consumers Alliance (AAA). We utilize the latest technology to ensure a fast closing and Loan Officer Kevin O’Connor has over 14 years of experience as a mortgage professional.
When it comes to mortgage rates please keep in mind that mortgage rates adjust daily; sometimes they adjust multiple times in a day when the bond market is volatile. Also things like obtaining cash out, lower credit scores, higher Loan-To-Value ratios, rental properties and the subordination of a second mortgage will cause in an increase in your mortgage rate. To obtain the most up-to-date quote, specific to your loan scenario be sure to contact Loan Officer Kevin O’Connor at 1-800-550-5538 or you can submit a “Contact Us” request on the our website.