Is May 2023 the month mortgage rates finally move below the range that started back in November 2022? Maybe. For mortgage rates to move below the range that has been in place for the last five months, the CPI report on May 10th will most likely need to be below market expectations. But will that be enough?
Despite evidence of a slowing economy and multiple bank failures, bond markets and mortgage rates have had a muted reaction. A weak CPI report might change that.
Opportunities And Risks For May 2023 Mortgage Rates
The opportunity for mortgage rates to move lower and the risk they move higher is about equal since the market has been in a range since last November. That might change on May 10th, when the latest CPI report comes out (data will be from April).
A strong CPI report above market expectations might push mortgage rates above the range, and a weak CPI report might be enough to push mortgage rates below the range.
May 2023 Mortgage Rate Forecast For California
Here are our latest May 2023 mortgage rate forecasts for California:
- 30-year fixed rates below 5.75%
- 20-year fixed rates below 5.625%
- 15-year fixed rates below 5.25%
Our May 2023 mortgage rate forecast is based on properties in California, a loan amount of $350,000, a primary home, excellent credit (740 or higher credit score), and a Loan-To-Value ratio below 60% (purchase transactions).
We may see days in which mortgage rates spike higher; however, overall, we believe there will be opportunities to lock a mortgage rate at or below these levels throughout the month of May.
Mortgage Rate And Payment Chart
Here is a quick reference guide to May 2023 mortgage rate possibilities in California (these are not quotes, just examples) and the payments associated with each level based on various conforming loan amounts. See our important disclosure below.
30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage
| Term | Loan Amount | Mortgage Rate | Payment |
| 30-year fixed | $380,000 | 5.50% | $2,157.60 |
| 30-year fixed | $480,000 | 5.50% | $2,725.39 |
| 30-year fixed | $580,000 | 5.50% | $3,293.18 |
| 30-year fixed | $680,000 | 5.50% | $3,860.97 |
20-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage
| Term | Loan Amount | Mortgage Rate | Payment |
| 20-year fixed | $380,000 | 5.25% | $2,560.61 |
| 20-year fixed | $480,000 | 5.25% | $3,234.45 |
| 20-year fixed | $580,000 | 5.25% | $3,908.30 |
| 20-year fixed | $680,000 | 5.25% | 4,582.14 |
15-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage
| Term | Loan Amount | Mortgage Rate | Payment |
| 15-year fixed | $380,000 | 5.00% | $3,005.02 |
| 15-year fixed | $480,000 | 5.00% | $3,795.81 |
| 15-year fixed | $580,000 | 5.00% | $4,586.60 |
| 15-year fixed | $680,000 | 5.00% | $5,377.40 |
Important disclosure: The above is not a mortgage rate quote, nor is it an offer to lend. It’s only a generic example of various mortgage rates, loan amounts, and payments. Our mortgage rate chart is meant to educate and inform our readers. The current mortgage rate market may be higher or lower than the examples listed in these mortgage rate charts. Also, mortgage rates can and often do adjust multiple times a day.
California Mortgage Calculator
Using a mortgage calculator to figure out your monthly payment is an essential part of buying a home in California or refinancing a current mortgage. Use our free mortgage calculator to help you determine what you can afford.
With our online mortgage calculator, you can also factor in your property tax amount along with your annual homeowner’s insurance amount with your monthly mortgage payment.
Our California mortgage calculator is free and easy to use.
And our mortgage calculator is especially helpful for those who want to impound their property taxes and property insurance into their monthly mortgage payment. If you have any questions about or California mortgage calculator, please don’t hesitate to ask.
Update Mortgage Guidelines May 2023
No updates.
Economic Calendar For May 2023
Here we cover the daily economic events that might impact May 2023 mortgage rates. After the report comes out, we’ll update the post with that information and comment on if there is a potential impact on the Mortgage-Backed Securities market and consumer mortgage rates.
To start things off, we have the following report:
- ISM Manufacturing report
- ADP Employment
- ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
- BLS Employment report
Wednesday – May 31st:
- MBA Purchase Index: The MBA Purchase Index came in at 154.4
- MBA Refinance Index: The MBA Refinance Index came in at 412.5
Friday – May 26th:
- CORE PCE: The Core PCE report came in at 0.4% (m/m) and the forecast was for a 0.3% increase. Year-over-year came in at 4.7%, which was higher than estimates. May 2023 mortgage moved higher post report.
Thursday – May 25th:
- Unemployment Claims: This week, jobless claims came in at 229,000.
Wednesday – May 24th:
- MBA Purchase Index: The MBA Purchase Index came in at – NA
- MBA Refinance Index: The MBA Refinance Index came in at – NA
Thursday – May 18th:
- Philly Fed Business Index: The market expectation was for a -20.0 reading and the final reading came in at -10.4.
- Unemployment Claims: This week, jobless claims came in at 242,000.
Wednesday – May 17th:
- MBA Purchase Index: The MBA Purchase Index came in at – NA
- MBA Refinance Index: The MBA Refinance Index came in at – NA
Tuesday – May 16th:
- Retail Sales: The Retail Sales report showed a 0.4% increase, and the forecast was for a 0.7% increase.
Friday – May 12th:
- Consumer Sentiment: Consumer Sentiment came in at 57.7, and had no impact on May 2023 mortgage rates.
- 1yr and 5yr Inflation Expectations: 1yr Inflation Expectations came in at4.5% and 5yr Inflation Expectations came in at 3.2%.
Thursday – May 11th:
- Unemployment Claims: Weekly unemployment claims came in at 264,000, and continued jobless claims came in at 1,813,000.
Wednesday – May 10th:
- MBA Purchase Index: The MBA Purchase Index came in at 173.7.
- MBA Refinance Index: The MBA Refinance Index came in at 507.1
- CPI Report: The year-over-year CPI report came in at 4.9%, and the Core CPI came in at 5.5%. Month-over-month CPI came in at 0.4%, and CORE came in at 0.4%. May 2023 mortgage rates were pushed higher after the report.
Friday – May 5th:
- Employment Report: The market was expecting the jobs report to show 180,000 jobs created; however, the report came in much stronger (253,000 jobs created). The unemployment rate came in at 3.4% (the market expected 3.6%), and earnings came in at a 0.5% increase (the market was expecting a 0.3% increase).
Thursday – May 4th:
- Challenger Layoffs: The Challenger Layoff report came in at 66,995, which is lower than last month’s report of 89,703.
- Unemployment Claims: Weekly unemployment claims came in at 228,000, and continued claims came in at 1,823,000.
Wednesday – May 3rd:
- MBA Purchase Index: The MBA Purchase Index came in at 165.8.
- MBA Refinance Index: The MBA Refinance Index came in at 461.2.
- ADP Jobs Report: The market was expecting 148,000 jobs created, and the report came in at 296,000 jobs created.
- ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: The monthly report came in at 51.9, and the market was expecting the report to come in at 51.8.
Monday – May 1st:
- ISM Manufacturing PMI: Last month, the ISM Manufacturing PMI report came in at 46.3, and this month it came in at 47.1 (market expectations were 46.8). ISM is still in contraction territory.
May 2023 Mortgage Rates In California – Averages
We’ll update this section as we move further into May; however, to start off the month, we’re seeing the following averages.
- The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 5.875%.
- The average 20-year fixed mortgage rate is 5.75%
- The average 15-year fixed rate is 5.25%.
This is an average of the May 2023 mortgage rates of everyone we’re seeing, from less-than-perfect credit to excellent credit. Please keep in mind that mortgage rates adjust daily, sometimes multiple times during the day. For a mortgage quote specific to your situation, please be sure to contact us directly.
Mortgage-Backed Securities & Treasury Snapshot
May 1st – May 12th:
Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 4.5 started trading at the 97.48 level, and the UMBS 5.0 coupon started at the 99.95 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the 3.49% level.
At the end of the week, Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 4.5 was at the 97.64 level, and the UMBS 5.0 coupon was nearing the 99.25 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the 3.46% level.
May 15th – May 31st:
Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 4.5 started trading at the 97.52 level, and the UMBS 5.0 coupon started at the 98.28 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the 3.50% level.
At the end of the week, Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 4.5 was at the 96.61 level, and the UMBS 5.0 coupon was nearing the 98.39 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the 3.64% level.
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