Daily Mortgage Rate Updates:
What an interesting three weeks it’s been for mortgage rates. At one point it seemed like mortgage rates were going to continue to move higher; potentially moving well above 4.00% on a 30y fixed rate loan however that has yet to materialize. Mortgage rates have somewhat improved in the last 3-5 days as fears of a potential “Phase One” trade deal with China seem to be less prevalent among bond traders. As a reminder; consumer mortgage rates originate in the bond market – specifically the Mortgage Backed Securities market.
This week we’ll see several economic reports hit the wires. The two most important reports this week (to the bond market and consumer mortgage rates) are the Philly Fed Index on Thursday and the Markit PMI report on Friday. If you are looking at locking in a rate you may want to do so before these reports come out; especially if the quoted rate/terms are for a purchase that is closing in the next 14-21 days.
Mortgage Rates - Conforming Loans
Mortgage Rates - FHA Loans
Mortgage Rates - Jumbo Loans
Mortgage Backed Securities & Treasury Snapshot:
November 18, 2019:
Mortgage Backed Security FNMA 3.0 started the day at 101.28 and the FNMA 3.5 coupon started the day at 102.59. The 10y Treasury yield started the day at the 1.85% level.
Shortly after the open CNBC reported that China was not optimistic a “Phase One” trade deal would happen and are disappointed Trump reversed his previous commitment to roll back some tariffs. Just after that was reported the 10y yield moved lower and Mortgage Backed Securities started to rally.
November 19, 2019:
Mortgage Backed Security FNMA 3.0 started the day at 101.31 and the FNMA 3.5 coupon started the day at 102.61. The 10y Treasury yield started the day at the 1.81% level.
November 20, 2019:
Mortgage Backed Security FNMA 3.0 started the day at 101.53 and the FNMA 3.5 coupon started the day at 102.69. The 10y Treasury yield started the day at the 1.74% level.
The bond market started the day in rally mode after news broke that the Senate passed a bill (which previously passed the House) showing support democracy demonstrators in Hong Kong.
How does that impact the bond market?
Great question! The simple answer is that it will make it more difficult for the US and China to agree on a “Phase One” trade deal. China is not happy about the House and the Senate showing support for the Hong Kong protestors and it could drive the two sides further apart. And as we’ve mentioned many times over the last year; the lack of a trade deal is impacting the US economy in a negative way. The longer it goes on the bigger the impact and negative news for the economy is positive news for bonds.
November 21, 2019:
Mortgage Backed Security FNMA 3.0 started the day at 101.47 and the FNMA 3.5 coupon started the day at 102.67. The 10y Treasury yield started the day at the 1.75% level.
November 22, 2019:
Mortgage Backed Security FNMA 3.0 started the day at 101.45 and the FNMA 3.5 coupon started the day at 102.69. The 10y Treasury yield started the day at the 1.75% level.
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Important Economic Data This Week:
Here we cover the daily economic events that might impact mortgage rates. After the report comes out we’ll update the post with that information and comment on if there is a potential impact on on the Mortgage Backed Securities market and consumer mortgage rates.
On Monday we have the NAHB Housing Market Index. On Tuesday we have Building Permits and Housing Starts. On Wednesday we have the weekly Mortgage Market Index and on Thursday we have the Philly Fed Index, Existing Home Sales and the weekly Unemployment Claims report. To finish off the week we have the Markit PMI reports (Composite, Services and Manufacturing) along with Consumer Sentiment and Consumer Inflation Expectations (1y and 5y).
NAHB Housing Market Index:
The market was expecting a reading of 71 after last months reading of 71. The actual reading came in at 70 and there was no market reaction to the report.
Last month the report showed a decline of -2.4% however today’s reading showed a turn around and came in at 5.00%.
Market expectations were for a reading of 1,320,000 units (annual rate) and the reading came in at 1,314,000 units. Last months reading was 1,256,000 units.
Mortgage Market Index:
The report decreased from 568.4 to 556.0. The Refinance component dropped significantly from 2374.6 to 2190.6 and the Purchase component increased from 253.4 to 270.4.
Philly Fed Business Index:
In October the report came in at 5.6 and expectations for the November reading was 7.0. The actual reading came in at 10.4. This was a stronger report with the headline number at 104 however an underlying component came in significantly weaker than last month. New Orders fell from a reading of 26.2 in October to 8.4 in November.
Jobless claims increased again this week; from 225,000 to 227,000.
PMI Composite – Markit:
Last month the reading came in at 50.9 and the reading this morning came in at 51.9.
The market was expecting a reading of 95.7 and the reading came in stronger than expected (96.8).
Consumer Inflation Expectations:
The 1 year report came in at 2.5% and the 5 yr report came in at 2.5%.
JB Mortgage Capital, Inc.:
We offer industry low mortgage rates for both refinance and purchase transactions, personal one-on-one service and we have an A+ rating with the Better Business Bureau (BBB). We also have a top rating with the Business Consumers Alliance (AAA).
We utilize the latest technology to ensure a fast closing and Loan Officer Kevin O’Connor has over 14 years of experience as a mortgage professional. When it comes to mortgage rates please keep in mind that mortgage rates adjust daily; sometimes they adjust multiple times in a day when the bond market is volatile.
Also things like obtaining cash out, lower credit scores, higher Loan-To-Value ratios, rental properties and the subordination of a second mortgage will cause in an increase in your mortgage rate.
To obtain the most up-to-date quote, specific to your loan scenario be sure to contact Loan Officer Kevin O’Connor at 1-800-550-5538 or you can submit a “Contact Us” request on the our website.
Loan Officer Kevin O’Connor:
Kevin grew up in California and works with clients throughout the state. From the initial quote to the application to the final closing; Kevin works directly with each and every homeowner and encourages his clients to ask questions so that they’re better informed. He updates koloans.com on daily basis and you can connect with him on social media: Twitter Rates01