I anticipate November 2023 mortgage rates will settle down from their recent runup that started last summer. From declining oil prices to economic data to comments made by Fed members, it appears the fear of another wave of inflation has subsided. This does not mean we are out of the woods yet, but it may be the beginning step in the long journey of normalization of mortgage rates.
Risks For November 2023 Mortgage Rates
It’s the holidays, and that means consumers will be shopping. The risk to November 2023 mortgage rates is the possibility of a strong holiday shopping season. Strong consumer spending could mean higher inflation, and higher inflation means higher November 2023 mortgage rates.
In addition to retail sales, we also need to pay attention to the monthly CPI and PCE reports (as usual).
November 2023 Mortgage Rate Forecast
Here are our November 2023 mortgage rate forecasts:
- 30-year fixed rates below 7.50%
- 20-year fixed rates below 7.25%
- 15-year fixed rates below 7.00%
Our November 2023 mortgage rate forecast is based on properties in California, a loan amount of $350,000, a primary home, excellent credit (740 or higher credit score), and a Loan-To-Value ratio below 60% (purchase transactions).
We may see days in which mortgage rates spike higher; however, overall, we believe there will be opportunities to lock a mortgage rate at or below these levels throughout the month of May.
Mortgage Rate And Payment Chart
Here is a quick reference guide to November 2023 mortgage rate possibilities in California (these are not quotes, just examples) and the payments associated with each level based on various conforming loan amounts. See our important disclosure below.
30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage
|Term||Loan Amount||Mortgage Rate||Payment|
Important disclosure: The above is not a mortgage rate quote, nor is it an offer to lend. It’s only a generic example of various mortgage rates, loan amounts, and payments. Our mortgage rate chart is meant to educate and inform our readers. The current mortgage rate market may be higher or lower than the examples listed in these mortgage rate charts. Also, mortgage rates can and often do adjust multiple times a day.
California Mortgage Calculator
Using a mortgage calculator to figure out your monthly payment is an essential part of buying a home in California or refinancing a current mortgage. Use our free mortgage calculator to help you determine what you can afford.
With our online mortgage calculator, you can also factor in your property tax amount along with your annual homeowner’s insurance amount with your monthly mortgage payment.
Our California mortgage calculator is free and easy to use.
And our mortgage calculator is especially helpful for those who want to impound their property taxes and property insurance into their monthly mortgage payment. If you have any questions about or California mortgage calculator, please don’t hesitate to ask.
Economic Calendar For November 2023
Here, we cover the daily economic events that might impact November 2023 mortgage rates. After the report comes out, we’ll update the post with that information and comment on if there is a potential impact on the Mortgage-Backed Securities market and consumer mortgage rates.
To start things off, we have the following report:
- ISM Manufacturing report
- ADP Employment
- ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
- BLS Employment report
Thursday – November 29th:
- GDP Q3: The GDP Q3 report came in at 5.2%, and the market was expecting the report to come in at 5.00%.
Wednesday – November 22nd:
- MBA Purchase Index: The MBA Purchase Index came in at 138.4.
- MBA Refinance Index: The MBA Refinance Index came in at 359.9.
- Durable Goods: The Durable Goods report came in at -5.4%, which was worse than the -3.1% forecast.
- Unemployment Claims: Weekly unemployment claims came in at 209,000, and continued claims came in at 1,840,000.
Thursday – November 16th:
- Unemployment Claims: Weekly unemployment claims came in at 231,000, and continued claims came in at 1,865,000.
Wednesday – November 15th:
- MBA Purchase Index: The MBA Purchase Index came in at 133.2.
- MBA Refinance Index: The MBA Refinance Index came in at 354.3.
- Retail Sales: The Retail Sales report came in at -0.1%, which was better than the -0.3% forecast.
Friday – November 10th:
- Inflation Sentiment: The 1yr Inflation Sentiment came in at 4.4% and the 5yr Inflation Sentiment came in at 3.20%. Both reports are higher than the previous month.
Thursday – November 9th:
- Unemployment Claims: Weekly unemployment claims came in at 217,000, and continued claims came in at 1,834,000.
Wednesday – November 8th:
- MBA Purchase Index: The MBA Purchase Index came in at 129.
- MBA Refinance Index: The MBA Refinance Index came in at 347.3
Friday – November 3rd:
- Employment Report: The market was expecting the jobs report to show 180,000 jobs created; however, the report came in at 150,000 jobs created. The unemployment rate came in at 3.9% (the market expected 3.8%), and earnings came in at 0.2% increase. November 2023 mortgage rates were slightly improved post-report.
- ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: The monthly report came in at 51.8, and the market was expecting the report to come in at 53.
Thursday – November 2nd:
- Challenger Layoffs: The Challenger Layoff report came in at 36,836, which is lower than last month’s report of 47,457.
- Unemployment Claims: Weekly unemployment claims came in at 217,000, and continued claims came in at 1,818,000.
Wednesday – November 1st:
- ISM Manufacturing PMI: Last month, the ISM Manufacturing PMI report came in at 49.00, and this month it came in at 46.7 (market expectations were 49.0). ISM remains in contraction territory.
- MBA Purchase Index: The MBA Purchase Index came in at 125.2.
- MBA Refinance Index: The MBA Refinance Index came in at 341.7.
- ADP Jobs Report: The market was expecting 150,000 jobs created, and the report came in at 113,000 jobs created.
- JOLTS – Job Openings: The JOLTS report came in at 9,553,000. November 2023 mortgage rates were stable post-report.
Mortgage-Backed Securities & Treasury Snapshot
November 1st – November 15th:
Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 5.5 started trading at the 95.92 level, and the UMBS 6.0 coupon started at the 98.22 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the 4.734% level.
At the end of the week, Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 5.5 was at the 97.28 level, and the UMBS 6.0 coupon was nearing the 99.33 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the 4.53% level.
November 16th – November 30th:
Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 5.5 started trading at the 97.84 level, and the UMBS 6.0 coupon started at the 99.78 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the 4.439% level.
At the end of the week, Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 5.5 was at the 98.64 level, and the UMBS 6.0 coupon was nearing the 100.38 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the 4.328% level.