October 2019 First Week

Mortgage Rates October 2019:

Consumer mortgage rates (Conforming, Jumbo and FHA fixed mortgage rates) are starting off the month at stable levels as we move into a busy period of economic data. California homeowners and homebuyers have the opportunity this week to lock in a low mortgage rate at great terms. This weeks most important reports to watch are as follows:

  • ISM Manufacturing PMI
  • ADP National Employment
  • ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
  • BLS Employment Report

We’ll update our clients with the latest information to help them best achieve their goals. If you have any questions or would like a no-cost/no-obligation quote please do not hesitate to ask.

Mortgage Rates - Conforming Loans

Mortgage Rates - FHA Loans

Mortgage Rates - Jumbo Loans

Mortgage Backed Securities & Treasury Snapshot:

October 01, 2019:

Mortgage Backed Security FNMA 3.0 started the day at 101.33, and the FNMA 3.5 coupon started the day at 102.47. The 10y Treasury yield started the day at the 1.70% level.

Shortly after the open the 10y yield moved as high as 1.76; then came the ISM report which pushed the 10y yield significantly lower and Mortgage Backed Securities eventually joined in on the rally (more on this below).

October 02, 2019:

Mortgage Backed Security FNMA 3.0 started the day at 101.64, and the FNMA 3.5 coupon started the day at 102.66. The 10y Treasury yield started the day at the 1.65% level.

Yesterday the bond market reversed course after the ISM Manufacturing PMI report. Does this mean mortgage rates are moving significantly lower in the coming weeks? No but it does help keep the market stable which is good news for homeowners and homebuyers. For the consumer mortgage rates to move “significantly” lower we’ll need to see the economic data come in way below market expectations and/or the recent progress in trade talks stall (or get worse).

October 03, 2019:

Mortgage Backed Security FNMA 3.0 started the day at 101.73, and the FNMA 3.5 coupon started the day at 102.70. The 10y Treasury yield started the day at the 1.58% level.

October 03, 2019:

Mortgage Backed Security FNMA 3.0 started the day at 101.77, and the FNMA 3.5 coupon started the day at 102.77. The 10y Treasury yield started the day at the 1.53% level.

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Important Economic Data This Week:

Here we cover the daily economic events that might impact mortgage rates. After the report comes out we’ll update the post with that information and comment on if there is a potential impact on on the Mortgage Backed Securities market and consumer mortgage rates.

This is a big week for data and we may see some significant moves in consumer mortgage rates!

On Tuesday we have the ISM Manufacturing PMI report (for September), and Construction Spending. On Wednesday we have the weekly Mortgage Market Index, ADP National Employment report and the ISM-New York Index for September. On Thursday we have the weekly unemployment claims report along with the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI report for September. To finish off the week we have the monthly Jobs report.

ISM Manufacturing PMI Report:

Market expectations were for a reading of 50.1 after last months 49.1 reading however the reading came in at 47.8 – the worst reading since the “Great Recession”. While this is a big negative for the economy it does help keep bond yields low and consumer mortgage rates.

What is also important is that this is the second month in a row in which the reading was below 50. A reading below 50 shows contraction.

Post report the 10y yield moved from 1.76% to 1.65% – a massive one day move. The moves in the Mortgage Backed Securities market were not as impressive: the FNMA 3.5 coupon moved from 102.45 to 102.66 and was struggling to stay at that level.

Construction Spending:

The report showed a 0.1% increase after last months report which also showed a 0.1% increase. The market was expecting a 0.4% increase.

ADP National Employment Report For September:

The Market was expecting the report to show 140,000 jobs created after last months reading of 195,000 jobs created. However the report showed 135,000 jobs created and revised the 195,000 to 157,000 jobs created.

Mortgage Market Index:

The Mortgage Market Index came in at 553.8 which is higher than last weeks report of 512.2. The refinance component increased from 1928.0 to 2202.6 and the purchase component increased from 261.4 to 263.8. The national average 30y fixed rate was 3.99% – higher than what most borrowers can obtain at JB Mortgage Capital, Inc.!

Weekly Unemployment Claims:

Market expectations were for 215,000 claims and the the weekly report came in at 219,000 claims.

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI:

Last month the reading came in at 56.4 and the market is expecting a reading of 55.0. The reading came in at 52.6 and post reading the bond market rallied pushing the 10y yield down below 1.55%.

Employment Report:

Last month the jobs report came in at 130,000 jobs created for the month of August and market expectations for the September report are for 145,000 jobs created. Earnings are expected to come in at a 0.3% increase after last months 0.4% increase.

The report showed 136,000 jobs created and 0.0% increase in wages.

Mortgage Rates For October 2019:

As we move into October many homeowners and homebuyers are asking the same question; what will mortgage rates due in October? The simple answer is this – no one really knows. The good news is that the recent economic data suggest the economy is slowing down which is a positive for the Mortgage Backed Securities market and more specifically mortgage rates in California and throughout the country.

What are the risks that might push mortgage rates higher?

There are three main risks associated with pushing mortgage rates higher in October:

  • The United States and China take meaningful steps to resolve the current trade war
  • Economic data starts to improve
  • The Fed becomes more hawkish

We’ll keep you posted so be sure to check back often.

JB Mortgage Capital, Inc.:

We offer industry low mortgage rates for both refinance and purchase transactions, personal one-on-one service and we have an A+ rating with the Better Business Bureau (BBB). We also have a top rating with the Business Consumers Alliance (AAA).

A+ Rating With The BBB

We utilize the latest technology to ensure a fast closing and Loan Officer Kevin O’Connor has over 14 years of experience as a mortgage professional.

When it comes to mortgage rates please keep in mind that mortgage rates adjust daily; sometimes they adjust multiple times in a day when the bond market is volatile.

Home Green

Also things like obtaining cash out, lower credit scores, higher Loan-To-Value ratios, rental properties and the subordination of a second mortgage will cause in an increase in your mortgage rate.

To obtain the most up-to-date quote, specific to your loan scenario be sure to contact Loan Officer Kevin O’Connor at 1-800-550-5538 or you can submit a “Contact Us” request on the our website.

Loan Officer Kevin OConnor

Loan Officer Kevin O’Connor:

Kevin grew up in California and works with clients throughout the state. From the initial quote to the application to the final closing; Kevin works directly with each and every homeowner and encourages his clients to ask questions so that they’re better informed. He updates koloans.com on daily basis and you can connect with him on social media: Twitter Rates01