October 2021 mortgage rates remain attractive as we head deeper into fall. Consumers who are looking to purchase a home or refinance a current mortgage are in a strong position to obtain a low mortgage rate with minimal to no lender fees.
Opportunities And Risks For October 2021
The biggest opportunity for October 2021 mortgage rates to move lower is if the economy slows down and/or COVID cases start to increase.
That’s the way it’s been for well over a year and will continue that way until COVID is a non-issue.
October 2021 mortgage rates could move higher if the economy dramatically improves or if we see a significant increase in inflation.
October 2021 Mortgage Rate Forecast For California
Here are our latest October 2021 mortgage rate forecasts for California:
- 30-year fixed rates below 2.875%
- 20-year fixed rates below 2.75%
- 15-year fixed rates below 2.25%
Our October 2021 mortgage rate forecast is based on properties in California, a loan amount of $350,000, a primary home, excellent credit (740 or higher credit score), and a Loan-To-Value ratio below 60% (purchase transactions).
We may see days in which mortgage rates spike higher however overall we believe there will be opportunities to lock a mortgage rate at or below these levels throughout the month of October.
Mortgage Rate And Payment Chart
Here is a quick reference guide to October 2021 mortgage rate possibilities in California (these are not quotes; just examples) and the payments associated with each level based on various conforming loan amounts. See our important disclosure below.
30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage:
|Term||Loan Amount||Mortgage Rate||Payment|
20-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage:
|Term||Loan Amount||Mortgage Rate||Payment|
15-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage:
|Term||Loan Amount||Mortgage Rate||Payment|
Important Disclosure For October 2021 mortgage rates: The above is not a mortgage rate quote; nor is it an offer to lend. It’s only a generic example of various mortgage rates, loan amounts, and payments. Our mortgage rate chart is meant to educate and inform our readers. The current October 2021 mortgage rate market may be higher or lower than the examples listed in these mortgage rate charts. Also; mortgage rates can and often do adjust multiple times a day.
California Mortgage Calculator
Using a mortgage calculator to figure out your monthly payment is an essential part of buying a home in California or refinancing a current mortgage. Use our free mortgage calculator to help you determine what you can afford.
With our online mortgage calculator, you can also factor in your property tax amount along with your annual homeowner’s insurance amount with your monthly mortgage payment.
Our California mortgage calculator is free and easy to use.
And our mortgage calculator is especially helpful for those who want to impound their property taxes and property insurance into their monthly mortgage payment. If you have any questions about or California mortgage calculator please don’t hesitate to ask.
Update Mortgage Guidelines October 2021
The biggest news heading into the month of October is the change in the way lenders are pricing non-owner occupied mortgage loans.
Previously lenders were adding on a “hit” to pricing due to guidance from the US Treasury department about making sure a lender’s portfolio of non-owner occupied loans is small compared to the lender’s portfolio of owner-occupied loans.
To ensure that many lenders started dramatically increasing non-owner-occupied mortgage rates to the point where it made little sense to obtain one (under most circumstances).
That increase (for now) is all but gone and non-owner mortgage rates are being priced the way they were before the guidance was issued.
Economic Calendar For October 2021
Here we cover the daily economic events that might impact mortgage rates. After the report comes out we’ll update the post with that information and comment on if there is a potential impact on the Mortgage-Backed Securities market and consumer mortgage rates.
To start things off we have:
- ISM Manufacturing report
- ADP Employment (sometimes comes out the day before the 1st of the month)
- ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
- BLS Employment report
Thursday – October 28th:
- Unemployment Claims: This week’s Unemployment Claims report came in at 281,000 and continuing claims came in at 2,243,000.
- GDP Advance Q3: The GDP Advance Q3 report was 2.00%.
Wednesday – October 27th:
- MBA Purchase Index: The MBA Purchase came in at 275.6 and last week it came in at 266.2.
- MBA Refinance Index: The MBA Refinance Index declined this week. Last week it came in at 2763.8 and this week it came in at 3023.0.
Tuesday – October 26th:
- Consumer Confidence: Last month the Consumer Confidence report came in at 109.3 and this month it came in at 113.8.
- New Home Sales: The New Home Sales report showed 14% increase compared to last month’s 1.5% increase.
Thursday – October 21st:
- Unemployment Claims: This week’s Unemployment Claims report came in at 290,000 and continuing claims came in at 2,481,000.
- Philly Fed Business Index: The Philly Fed Business Index came in at 23.8 (the market was expecting a reading of 25.0)
Wednesday – October 20th:
- MBA Purchase Index: The MBA Purchase came in at 266.2 and last week it came in at 279.8.
- MBA Refinance Index: The MBA Refinance Index declined this week. Last week it came in at 3023.0 and this week it came in at 2807.9.
Monday – October 18th:
- NAHB Housing Index: Market expectations were for a reading of 76 however the reading came in at 80.
Friday – October 15th:
- Retail Sales: The market was expecting the Retail Sales report to show a decline of -0.2% however the report came in significantly higher (+0.7%). October 2021 mortgage rates moved higher post report.
Thursday – October 14th:
- Unemployment Claims: This week’s Unemployment Claims report came in at 293,000 and continuing claims came in at 2,593,000. October 2021 mortgage rates were slightly impacted by this morning’s economic reports.
- Core Producer Prices: The expectations were for a report to show a 0.5% increase however it came in at a 0.2% increase (m/m).
Wednesday – October 13th:
- MBA Purchase Index: The MBA Purchase came in at 279.8 and last week it came in at 275.7.
- MBA Refinance Index: The MBA Refinance Index declined this week. Last week it came in at 3037.6 and this week it came in at 3023.0.
Friday – October 8th:
- Employment Report: The jobs report showed 194,000 jobs created, and an average earnings increase of 0.6%. Lower than expected job creation is good for mortgage rates but the strong increase in wages a somewhat of a big negative for October 2021 mortgage rates.
Wednesday – October 7th:
- MBA Purchase Index: The MBA Purchase Index continues to decline. Last week it came in at 280.4 and this week it was 275.7.
- MBA Refinance Index: The MBA Refinance Index also declined; last week it came in at 3359.5 and this week it came in at 3037.6.
- ADP National Employment Report: The market anticipated the ADP Employment Report to come in at 428,000 jobs created however the report showed 568,000 jobs created.
Tuesday – October 5th:
- ISM N-Manufacturing PMI: Expectations were for a reading of 60.0 and the final reading came in at 61.9
Friday – October 1st:
- ISM Manufacturing PMI: The market was expecting the ISM Manufacturing PMI report to come in at 59.6 however the report came in at 61.1. This is a negative for October 2021 mortgage rates.
- Core PCE: Last month the Core PCE report came in at 3.6% and this month it came in at the same exact level (3.6%). Since this is what the market was expecting there was no immediate impact to October 2021 mortgage rates.
Mortgage Rates And The Monthly Jobs Report
The market is expecting the monthly jobs report to come in at 500,000 jobs created, average hours worked at 34.7, and average earnings increase of 0.4%. The jobs created was much lower, and the earnings were stronger which caused the bond market to selloff.
October 2021 mortgage rates should be slightly higher as we head into next week however it would not be surprising to see the market reverse course and pull back a bit. That being said; I would not expect a sharp reversal.
Mortgage rates are notorious for moving up super quick and taking forever to return to previous levels. So if we see October 2021 mortgage rates improve late next week, or the following week please be cautious.
October 2021 Mortgage Rates In California – Average
We’ll update this section as we move further into October however to start off the month we’re seeing the following averages.
- The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 2.75%.
- The average 20-year fixed mortgage rate is 2.625%
- The average 15-year fixed rate is 2.00%.
This is an average of the October 2021 mortgage rates of everyone we’re seeing; from less than perfect credit to excellent credit. Please keep in mind that mortgage rates adjust daily; sometimes multiple times during the day. For a mortgage quote specific to your situation please be sure to contact us directly.
Mortgage-Backed Securities & Treasury Snapshot
October 25th – October 29th:
Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 2.0 started the week at the 99.34 level and the UMBS 2.5 coupon started at the 102.20 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the 1.65% level to start the week.
At the end of the week, Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 2.0 was at the 99.87 level and the UMBS 2.5 coupon was nearing the 102.59 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at 1.58%.
October 18th – October 22nd:
Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 2.0 started the week at the 99.55 level and the UMBS 2.5 coupon started at the 102.42 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the 1.60% level to start the week.
At the end of the week, Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 2.0 was at the 99.34 level and the UMBS 2.5 coupon was nearing the 102.19 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at 1.63%.
October 11th – October 15th:
Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 2.0 started the week at the 99.64 level and the UMBS 2.5 coupon started at the 102.55 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the 1.61% level to start the week.
At the end of the week, Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 2.0 was at the 99.77 level and the UMBS 2.5 coupon was nearing the 102.55 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at 1.57%.
October 1st – October 8th:
Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 2.0 started the week at the 100.33 level and the UMBS 2.5 coupon started at the 103.17 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the 1.48% level to start the week.
At the end of the week, Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 2.0 was at the 99.73 level and the UMBS 2.5 coupon was nearing the 102.59 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at 1.61%.