The Fed finally did it, they lowered rates! Well that’s only partially true. What they did is lower the Fed funds rate, mortgage rates have been in a tight range that started just before the Fed meeting. Most people believe that when the Fed lowers, mortgage rates go lower and that simply is not the case (most of the time).
Why? Because the market usually anticipates what the Fed is going to do before they meet.
Opportunities And Risks For October 2024 Mortgage Rates
The opportunity for mortgage rates to move lower this month is going to be dependent on market participants and their views on long term inflation trends. Right now, mortgage rates are basically flat since the Fed meeting. Unless the data comes in much weaker than expected, October 2024 mortgage rates should remain flat heading into the final two months of 2024.
K.O. Home Loan Solutions October 2024 Mortgage Rate Forecast
Here are our latest October 2024 mortgage rate forecasts for California:
- 30-year fixed rates below 6.125%
- 20-year fixed rates below 6.00%
- 15-year fixed rates below 5.75%
K.O Home Solutions October 2024 mortgage rate forecast is based on properties in California, a loan amount of $350,000, a primary home, excellent credit (740 or higher credit score), and a Loan-To-Value ratio below 60% (purchase transactions).
We may see days in which mortgage rates spike higher; however, we believe there will be opportunities to lock a mortgage rate at or below these levels throughout October.
Mortgage Rate And Payment Chart
Here is a quick reference guide to October 2024 mortgage rate possibilities in California (these are not quotes, just examples) and the payments associated with each level based on various conforming loan amounts. See our important disclosure below.
30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage
| Term | Loan Amount | Mortgage Rate | Payment |
| 30-year fixed | $170,000 | 5.75% | $992.07 |
| 30-year fixed | $270,000 | 5.75% | $1,575.65 |
| 30-year fixed | $370,000 | 5.75% | $2,159.22 |
| 30-year fixed | $470,000 | 5.75% | $2,742.79 |
Important disclosure: The above is not a mortgage rate quote nor an offer to lend. It’s only a generic example of various mortgage rates, loan amounts, and payments. Our mortgage rate chart is meant to educate and inform our readers. The current mortgage rate market may be higher or lower than the examples listed in these mortgage rate charts. Also, mortgage rates can and often do adjust multiple times a day.
K.O. Home Loan Solution’s Mortgage Calculator
Using a mortgage calculator to determine your monthly payment is essential to buying a home in California or refinancing a current mortgage. Our free mortgage calculator can help you determine what you can afford.
With our online mortgage calculator, you can also factor in your property tax and annual homeowner’s insurance into your monthly mortgage payment (as well as your HOA dues, if applicable).
Our California mortgage calculator is free and easy to use.
Our mortgage calculator is especially helpful for those wanting to include their property taxes and insurance in their monthly mortgage payment. If you have any questions about our California mortgage calculator, please don’t hesitate to ask.
Economic Calendar For October 2024
Here, we cover the daily economic events that might impact October 2024 mortgage rates. After the report comes out, we’ll update the post with that information and comment on whether there is a potential impact on the Mortgage-Backed Securities market and consumer mortgage rates.
To start things off, we have the following report:
- ISM Manufacturing report
- ADP Employment
- ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
- BLS Employment report
Thursday – October 31st
- Unemployment Claims: Weekly unemployment claims came in at 216,000, and continued claims came in at 1,862,000.
- Core PCE: Important inflation reports continue to come in hotter than expected. The year/year Core PCE report came in at 2.7% and forecasts were for a 2.6% reading.
Wednesday – October 30th
- MBA Purchase Index: The MBA Purchase Index came in at 137.8.
- MBA Refinance Index: The MBA Refinance Index came in at 630.0.
Friday – October 25th
- Durable Goods: The highly volatile Durable Goods report came in at -0.8%.
- Inflation Sentiment: The 5y Inflation Sentiment came in at 3.00% and the 1y Inflation Sentiment came in at 2.7%.
Thursday – October 24th
- Unemployment Claims: Weekly unemployment claims came in at 227,000, and continued claims came in at 1,897,000.
- New Home Sales: After decreasing 4.7% last month, New Home Sales increased 4.1% this month.
Wednesday – October 23rd
- MBA Purchase Index: The MBA Purchase Index came in at 131.3.
- MBA Refinance Index: The MBA Refinance Index came in at 672.6.
Friday – October 18th
- Building Permits: The report showed an annual run rate of 1,428,000.
- Housing Starts: The important Housing Starts report remained stable with an annual run rate of 1,354,000.
Thursday – October 17th
- Unemployment Claims: Weekly unemployment claims came in at 241,000, and continued claims came in at 1,867,000.
- Retail Sales: The Retail Sales report is closely watched by the market. A strong number can idicate high demand and high demand can lead to higher inflation. Last month the report came in at 0.1%, and this month the report came in at 0.4%. This was not a good report for mortgage rates.
Wednesday – October 16th
- MBA Purchase Index: The MBA Purchase Index came in at 138.4.
- MBA Refinance Index: The MBA Refinance Index came in at 734.6.
Friday – October 11th
- Core Producer Prices: The Core Producer Prices report came in at 2.8% year/year. Last month the report came in at 2.4%.
Thursday – October 10th
- Unemployment Claims: Weekly unemployment claims came in at 258,000, and continued claims came in at 1,861,000.
- Core CPI: The most watched inflation report came in today. And the big news is that Core CPI came in hotter that expected. Year/year Core CPI came in at 3.30% and month/month Core CPI came in at 0.3%. I anticipate October 2024 mortgage rates will move higher post report.
Wednesday – October 9th
- MBA Purchase Index: The MBA Purchase Index came in at 149.2.
- MBA Refinance Index: The MBA Refinance Index came in at 997.3.
Friday – October 4th
- Employment Report: Today we got the monthly jobs report which showed 254,000 jobs created, an unemployment rate of 4.1% and average earnings came in at 0.4%. October 2024 mortgage rates will most likely move higher post report.
Thursday – October 3rd
- Unemployment Claims: Weekly unemployment claims came in at 225,000.
- Challenger Layoffs: The monthly Challender Layoffs index remains elevated at 72,821.
Wednesday – October 2nd
- MBA Purchase Index: The MBA Purchase Index came in at 149.3.
- MBA Refinance Index: The MBA Refinance Index came in at 1099.5.
- ADP Employment: The monthly ADP report came in at 143,000
Tuesday – October 1st
- JOLTS: The monthly JOLTS report came in higher than expected; 7.65m vs 8.04m. October 2024 mortgage rates were flat post report.
- ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid: The market was expecting the report to come in at 53.3.
Mortgage-Backed Securities & Treasury Snapshot
Here are the two-week opening and closing levels of Mortgage-Backed Securities and the 10-year Treasury Yield.
October 1st – October 15th:
Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 4.5 started trading at the 98.58 level, and the UMBS 5.0 coupon started at the 100.08 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the 3.73% level.
At the end of the two-week period, Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 4.5 was at the 96.82 level, and the UMBS 5.0 coupon was nearing the 98.80 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the 4.04% level.
October 16th – October 30th:
Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 4.5 started trading at the 96.96 level, and the UMBS 5.0 coupon started at the 98.89 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the 4.01% level.
At the end of the two-week period, Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 4.5 was at the 94.90 level, and the UMBS 5.0 coupon was nearing the 97.09 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the 4.30% level.
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