There’s a lot of excitment around September 2024 mortgage rates. Inflation is cooling and the economy is slowing and that combination usually leads to lower mortgage rates. One thing that is important to keep in mind is that the market usually anticipates economic events rather than react.
Inflation and economic reports are expected to come in lower than what we’ve seen in previous months, and the market is anticipating that. Unless there is a big surprise to one of these reports, you probably won’t see a significant move lower with rates.
And when it comes to the Fed, the market also anticipates what the Fed is going to do so when they lower this month don’t expect a big market reaction (unless the rate cut is larger than anticipated). Mortgage rates will have already moved lower prior to the report.
Opportunities And Risks For September 2024 Mortgage Rates
The opportunity for September 2024 mortgage rates to move lower is dependent upon the employment report, and the CPI report. The market is already anticipating those reports to show weakness. What we’ll need to see is a surprise reading showing economic and inflation weakness to be greater than what the market is anticipating.
As always the risk to mortgage rates moving higher is a stronger economy, and higher than anticipated inflation.
K.O. Home Loan Solutions September 2024 Mortgage Rate Forecast
Here are our latest September 2024 mortgage rate forecasts for California:
- 30-year fixed rates below 6.25%
- 20-year fixed rates below 6.125%
- 15-year fixed rates below 6.00%
K.O Home Solutions September 2024 mortgage rate forecast is based on properties in California, a loan amount of $350,000, a primary home, excellent credit (740 or higher credit score), and a Loan-To-Value ratio below 60% (purchase transactions).
We may see days in which mortgage rates spike higher; however, we believe there will be opportunities to lock a mortgage rate at or below these levels throughout September.
Mortgage Rate And Payment Chart
Here is a quick reference guide to September 2024 mortgage rate possibilities in California (these are not quotes, just examples) and the payments associated with each level based on various conforming loan amounts. See our important disclosure below.
30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage
| Term | Loan Amount | Mortgage Rate | Payment |
| 30-year fixed | $295,000 | 6.00% | $1,768.67 |
| 30-year fixed | $395,000 | 6.00% | $2,368.22 |
| 30-year fixed | $495,000 | 6.00% | $2,967.78 |
| 30-year fixed | $595,000 | 6.00% | $3,567.33 |
Important disclosure: The above is not a mortgage rate quote nor an offer to lend. It’s only a generic example of various mortgage rates, loan amounts, and payments. Our mortgage rate chart is meant to educate and inform our readers. The current mortgage rate market may be higher or lower than the examples listed in these mortgage rate charts. Also, mortgage rates can and often do adjust multiple times a day.
K.O. Home Loan Solution’s Mortgage Calculator
Using a mortgage calculator to determine your monthly payment is essential to buying a home in California or refinancing a current mortgage. Our free mortgage calculator can help you determine what you can afford.
With our online mortgage calculator, you can also factor in your property tax and annual homeowner’s insurance into your monthly mortgage payment (as well as your HOA dues, if applicable).
Our California mortgage calculator is free and easy to use.
Our mortgage calculator is especially helpful for those wanting to include their property taxes and insurance in their monthly mortgage payment. If you have any questions about our California mortgage calculator, please don’t hesitate to ask.
Economic Calendar For September 2024
Here, we cover the daily economic events that might impact September 2024 mortgage rates. After the report comes out, we’ll update the post with that information and comment on whether there is a potential impact on the Mortgage-Backed Securities market and consumer mortgage rates.
To start things off, we have the following report:
- ISM Manufacturing report
- ADP Employment
- ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
- BLS Employment report
Wednesday – September 25th
- MBA Purchase Index: The MBA Purchase Index came in at (pending).
- MBA Refinance Index: The MBA Refinance Index came in at (pending).
Thursday – September 19th
- Unemployment Claims: Weekly unemployment claims came in at (pending), and continued claims came in at (pending).
Wednesday – September 18th
- MBA Purchase Index: The MBA Purchase Index came in at (pending).
- MBA Refinance Index: The MBA Refinance Index came in at (pending).
Thursday – September 12th
- Unemployment Claims: Weekly unemployment claims came in at (pending), and continued claims came in at (pending).
- Core Producer Prices: The Core Producer Prices report came in at (pending) (month/month) and the market was expecting the report to show a (pending) increase.
Wednesday – September 11th
- MBA Purchase Index: The MBA Purchase Index came in at (pending).
- MBA Refinance Index: The MBA Refinance Index came in at (pending).
- Core CPI: (pending)
Friday – September 7th
- Employment Report: The market expected the jobs report to show 160,000 jobs created. However, the reading came in much lower, only showing 142,000 jobs created. The unemployment rate came in at 4.2%, and earnings came in at a 0.4% increase (the market was expecting a 0.3% increase). September 2024 mortgage rates barely moved after the report.
Thursday – September 6th
- Unemployment Claims: Weekly unemployment claims came in at 227,000, and continued claims came in at 1,838,000.
- Challenger Layoffs: The Challenger Layoff report came in at 75,891.
- ADP Employment: The ADP Employment report came in significantly lower than anticipated. The market was anticipating 145,000 jobs created and the report came in at 99,000 jobs created.
Wednesday – September 4th
- MBA Purchase Index: The MBA Purchase Index came in at 751.4.
- MBA Refinance Index: The MBA Refinance Index came in at 136.1.
- JOLTS: The monthly JOLTS report came in a lower than expected; 8.184m vs 7.673m. September 2024 mortgage rates were stable to slightly better post report.
Mortgage-Backed Securities & Treasury Snapshot
Here are the two-week opening and closing levels of Mortgage-Backed Securities and the 10-year Treasury Yield.
September 1st – September 15th:
Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 4.5 started trading at the 97.69 level, and the UMBS 5.0 coupon started at the 99.59 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the 3.83% level.
At the end of the two-week period, Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 4.5 was at the (pending) level, and the UMBS 5.0 coupon was nearing the (pending) level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the (pending) level.
September 16th – September 30th:
Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 4.5 started trading at the (pending) level, and the UMBS 5.0 coupon started at the (pending) level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the (pending) level.
At the end of the two-week period, Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 4.5 was at the (pending) level, and the UMBS 5.0 coupon was nearing the (pending) level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the (pending) level.
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