Septemeber 2023 News And Events

What year 2023 has been for mortgage rates. After shooting higher early in the year, mortgage rates moved significantly lower after several large banks failed. Since then, mortgage rates have been moving higher, and entering September 2023; they seem to be pulling back again.

Where do they go next? Who knows, and that’s the most honest answer any industry professional can give as we transition from summer to fall. As always, if you are about to move forward on a transaction and the mortgage rate makes sense, lock it in without hesitation.

Opportunities And Risks For September 2023 Mortgage Rates

It’s a mixed outlook when it comes to September 2023 mortgage rates. For the first time in a long time, an argument can be made as to why mortgage rates should level off and move lower. Job growth is slowing, manufacturing is weak, and inflation is clearly moving lower.

However, the Fed remains hawkish, and Fed members have said repeatedly that they believe there are more hikes down the road. It’s important to keep in mind this fact, the Fed does not set mortgage rates, but they do have an influence on which direction they go.

Still, the most likely scenario is that mortgage rates remain elevated and lean towards moving higher, and that will remain until that trend is clearly broken.

September 2023 Mortgage Rate Forecast For California

Here are our latest September 2023 mortgage rate forecasts for California:

  • 30-year fixed rates below 6.50%
  • 20-year fixed rates below 6.375%
  • 15-year fixed rates below 5.25%

Our September 2023 mortgage rate forecast is based on properties in California, a loan amount of $350,000, a primary home, excellent credit (740 or higher credit score), and a Loan-To-Value ratio below 60% (purchase transactions).

We may see days in which mortgage rates spike higher; however, overall, we believe there will be opportunities to lock a mortgage rate at or below these levels throughout the month of September.

FHA loan limit in California

Mortgage Rate And Payment Chart

Here is a quick reference guide to September 2023 mortgage rate possibilities in California (these are not quotes, just examples) and the payments associated with each level based on various conforming loan amounts. See our important disclosure below.

30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage

TermLoan AmountMortgage RatePayment
30-year fixed$305,0006.75%$1,978.22
30-year fixed$405,0006.75%$2,626.82
30-year fixed$505,0006.75%$3,275.42
30-year fixed$605,0006.75%$3,924.02

20-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage

TermLoan AmountMortgage RatePayment
20-year fixed$305,0006.625%$2,296.50
20-year fixed$405,0006.625%$3,049.45
20-year fixed$505,0006.625%$3,802.40
20-year fixed$605,0006.625%$4,555.35

15-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage

TermLoan AmountMortgage RatePayment
15-year fixed$305,0006.375%$2,635.96
15-year fixed$405,0006.375%$3,500.21
15-year fixed$505,0006.375%$4,364.46
15-year fixed$605,0006.375%$5,228.71

Important disclosure: The above is not a mortgage rate quote, nor is it an offer to lend. It’s only a generic example of various mortgage rates, loan amounts, and payments. Our mortgage rate chart is meant to educate and inform our readers. The current mortgage rate market may be higher or lower than the examples listed in these mortgage rate charts. Also, mortgage rates can and often do adjust multiple times a day. 

California Mortgage Calculator

Using a mortgage calculator to figure out your monthly payment is an essential part of buying a home in California or refinancing a current mortgage. Use our free mortgage calculator to help you determine what you can afford.

With our online mortgage calculator, you can also factor in your property tax amount along with your annual homeowner’s insurance amount with your monthly mortgage payment.

Advanced Mortgage Calculator For City Pages

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Our mortgage calculator is especially helpful for those who want to impound their property taxes and property insurance into their monthly mortgage payment. If you have any questions about or California mortgage calculator, please don’t hesitate to ask.

Update Mortgage Guidelines September 2023

No updates to mortgage guidelines.

Economic Calendar For September 2023

Here we cover the daily economic events that might impact September 2023 mortgage rates. After the report comes out, we’ll update the post with that information and comment on if there is a potential impact on the Mortgage-Backed Securities market and consumer mortgage rates.

To start things off, we have the following report:

Thursday – September 28th:

  • Unemployment Claims: Weekly unemployment claims came in at 204,000, and continued claims came in at 1,667,000.

Wednesday – September 27th:

  • MBA Purchase Index: The MBA Purchase Index came in at 144.8.
  • MBA Refinance Index: The MBA Refinance Index came in at 411.7.

Thursday – September 21st:

  • Unemployment Claims: Weekly unemployment claims came in at 201,000, and continued claims came in at 1,662,000.

Wednesday – September 20th:

  • MBA Purchase Index: The MBA Purchase Index came in at 147.0.
  • MBA Refinance Index: The MBA Refinance Index came in at 415.4.

Friday – September 15th:

  • Consumer Sentiment: Consumer sentiment came in at 67.7.
  • 1yr and 5yr Inflation Expectations: 1yr inflation expectations came in at 3.10% and 5yr inflation expectations came 2.70%.

Thursday – September 14th:

  • Unemployment Claims: Weekly unemployment claims came in at 220,000, and continued claims came in at 1,688,000.
  • Core Producer Prices: Year/year Core Producer Prices came in at 2.20% and month/month came in at 0.2%.
  • Retail Sales: Retail sales was significantly higher than expected (0.6% vs 0.2%), and post-report mortgage rates moved higher.

Wednesday – September 13th:

  • MBA Purchase Index: The MBA Purchase Index came in at 143.7.
  • MBA Refinance Index: The MBA Refinance Index came in at 367.0.
  • CPI Report: Month/month Core CPI came in at 0.3% (a bit above the expectations of 0.2%). Year/year Core CPI came in at 4.3% which was inline with expectations. The initial move for September 2023 mortgage rates was higher.

Thursday – September 7th:

  • Unemployment Claims: Weekly unemployment claims came in at 216,000, and continued claims came in at 1,679,000.

Wednesday – September 6th:

  • MBA Purchase Index: The MBA Purchase Index came in at 141.9.
  • MBA Refinance Index: The MBA Refinance Index came in at 388.1.
  • ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: The monthly report came in at 54.5. September 2023 mortgage rates were under pressure post report.

Friday – September 1st:

  • Employment Report: The market was expecting the jobs report to show 170,000 jobs created; however, the report came in a bit higher at 187,000 jobs created. The unemployment rate came in at 3.8% (the market expected 3.5%), and earnings came in at a 0.2% increase. There were significant revisions to the June and July numbers, and for 2023 BLS revisions lower of totaled over 300,000. September 2023 mortgage rates were higher post-report.

Mortgage-Backed Securities & Treasury Snapshot

September 1st – September 15th:

Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 4.5 started trading at the 94.50 level, and the UMBS 5.0 coupon started at the 96.77 level. The 10-year Treasury yield was at the 4.18% level.

At the end of the week, Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 4.5 was at the 93.69 level, and the UMBS 5.0 coupon was nearing the 95.95 level. The 10-year Treasury yield was at the 4.33% level.

September 18th – September 29th:

Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 4.5 started trading at the 93.94 level, and the UMBS 5.0 coupon started at the 96.20 level. The 10-year Treasury yield was at the 4.30% level.

At the end of the week, Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 4.5 was at the 91.67 level, and the UMBS 5.0 coupon was nearing the 94.25 level. The 10-year Treasury yield was at the 4.57% level.

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Loan Officer Kevin O'Connor

About The Author

Loan Officer Kevin O'Connor has over 17 years of experience as a Mortgage Loan Originator and is a trusted resource for mortgage education and information. He's licensed by the state of California and the Nationwide Mortgage Licensing System. He has a top rating with the Better Business Bureau, Google, Yelp, and Zillow. You can contact him at 1-800-550-5538. CA DRE #01499872 / NMLS #247447