As we move further into the summer months we’ll start to see how the pandemic is going to impact the economy long-term and mortgage rates in California. Unfortunately, it appears there will be some significant headwinds as daily cases top 40,000 however even if things get “worse” it does not mean mortgage rates will go any lower.

July 2020 mortgage rates in California should continue to remain low for the foreseeable future. When locking in a mortgage rate is important to keep mortgage rate expectations realistic as no one can accurately predict what mortgage rates will do from day to day or week to week.

If you have the option to lock in a mortgage rate that makes sense you should not hesitate to do so. Waiting too long might end up costing you money.

The biggest risk for July 2020 mortgage rates is a faster than expected turnaround in the economy.

If you are looking to purchase a home or refinance a current mortgage this summer please be sure to contact me directly (you can use the contact form below or call my direct number: 1-800-550-5538) for a no-cost/no-obligation quote.

July 2020 Mortgage Rate Forecast For California

Here are our July 2020 mortgage rate forecasts for California:

30-year fixed rates below 3.25%
20-year fixed rates below 3.125%
15-year fixed rates below 2.875%

This is based on properties in California, a loan amount of $350,000, a primary home, excellent credit (740 or higher credit score), and a Loan-To-Value ratio below 75%. We may see periods in which mortgage rates spike higher however overall we believe there will be opportunities to lock at or below these levels throughout the month of July.

July 2020 Mortgage Rate Chart

Here is a quick reference guide to July 2020 mortgage rate possibilities in California (these are not quotes; just examples) and the payments associated with each level based on various conforming loan amounts. See our important disclosure below.

Mortgage Rate Chart – 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage:

Term	Loan Amount	Mortgage Rate	Payment
30-year fixed	$200,000	3.00%	$843.21
30-year fixed	$300,000	3.00%	$1,264.81
30-year fixed	$400,000	3.00%	$1,686.42
30-year fixed	$500,000	3.00%	$2,108.02

Mortgage Rate Chart – 20 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage:

Term	Loan Amount	Mortgage Rate	Payment
20-year fixed	$200,000	2.875%	$1,096.72
20-year fixed	$300,000	2.875%	$1,645.08
20-year fixed	$400,000	2.875%	$2,193.44
320-year fixed	$500,000	2.875%	$2,741.81

Mortgage Rate Chart – 15 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage:

Term	Loan Amount	Mortgage Rate	Payment
15-year fixed	$200,000	2.625%	$1,345.38
15-year fixed	$300,000	2.625%	$2,018.07
15-year fixed	$400,000	2.625%	$2,690.30
15-year fixed	$500,000	2.625%	$3,363.45

Important Disclosure For July 2020 California mortgage rates: The above is not a mortgage rate quote; nor is it an offer to lend. It’s only a generic example of various mortgage rates, loan amounts, and payments. Our mortgage rate chart is meant to educate and inform our readers. The current market may be higher or lower than the examples listed in these rate charts. Also; mortgage rates can and often do adjust multiple times a day.

California Mortgage Calculator

Using a mortgage calculator to figure out your monthly payment is an essential part of buying a home in California or refinancing a current mortgage. Use our free mortgage calculator to help you determine what you can afford and if you have questions please don’t hesitate to ask!

Coronavirus and California Mortgage Rates-July 2020

It’s not been a great start to July when it comes to the number of new Coronavirus cases. This week we’ve seen record days and many are concerned that it will only go higher in the coming days and weeks unless states implement better policies to prevent the spread.

California mortgage rates might be impacted if cases dramatically get worse and the death rate jumps higher however mortgage rates are already at all-time lows so a significant move lower is unlikely.

Keep in mind if things improve in the coming weeks we could easily see mortgage rates in California move higher as optimism over an economic rebound increases.

July 2020 Mortgage Rate FAQ’s

Here we answer some popular questions about mortgage rates in California. For additional mortgage information visit our Scoop.it! page.

Will Mortgage Rates Go Lower In July?

Predicting the direction of mortgage rates is difficult at best. July 2020 California mortgage rates will be impacted by various factors. With mortgage rates already at all-time lows, it’s unlikely you’ll see a significant move lower in mortgage rates in July.

As mentioned above; waiting for mortgage rates to push below all-time lows is risky. In fact, it’s super risky so the prudent decision is to lock in to avoid the risk of mortgage rates moving higher.

What Is A Good 30 Year Fixed Rate in California?

Provided you are working with a well-established and well-respected mortgage broker you should not hesitate to take advantage of this market. Depending on your credit score, equity, ownership, and type of property a 30-year fixed rates are lower today than at any time in my 15+ year career.

What Is A Good 15 Year Fixed Rate In California?

The same answer applies. Make sure you are working with a great mortgage broker who you can trust so you can take advantage of the current market.

How Do I Get The Best Mortgage Rate?

The first and most important thing is to work with a top-rated mortgage broker with years of experience. Obtaining the best mortgage rate in California is everyone’s goal and the easiest way to do that is to locate the best mortgage broker.

Take the time to locate the best mortgage broker, one you can trust to not only provide the best mortgage rate but also the best service. And the second most important thing, when looking to get the best mortgage rate, is to ask questions. Ask lots of questions to ensure you fully understand the mortgage quote.

Update Mortgage Guidelines July 2020

In some areas, mortgage lenders have loosened their guidelines to be a bit more accommodative however guidelines are still tighter today than pre-COVID. The biggest change in July 2020 is more mortgage lenders are starting to bring back Cash-Out mortgage loan programs which went away for most mortgage lenders in April and May.

And the ones that kept the program are now charging less to do cash-out loans.

When it comes to self-employed people things are generally still the same; more documentation needs to be provided for both refinance and purchase transactions.

Fed Meeting July 2020 And Mortgage Rates

On July 28th and 29th, the Fed will have their two-day meeting. Post-meeting we’ll update this article and discuss any potential impact on mortgage rates in California.

Fed Meeting Update:

Here are the updates from the meeting:

The Fed is maintaining an overnight interest rate in the target range of 0.0% to .25%.
The Fed will use all available tools to help the economy.
The Fed is seeing employment and economic activity picking up.
The path of the economy is based on the course of the Coronavirus outbreak.
The Fed will maintain its Treasury and Mortgage-Backed Securities purchase program.

Mortgage rates remained stable post report. It’s important to remember the Fed does NOT control mortgage rates. What they say can impact the market in which mortgage rates originate but in no way, shape or form do they set mortgage rates.

Economic Calendar For July 2020

Here we cover the daily economic events that might impact mortgage rates. After the report comes out we’ll update the post with that information and comment on if there is a potential impact on the Mortgage-Backed Securities market and consumer mortgage rates.

The first week of the month will be important for July 2020 mortgage rates.

To start things off we have:

ISM Manufacturing report
ADP Employment
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
BLS Employment report

Thursday – July 30th:

Weekly Jobless Claims: Another week and another bad weekly jobless claims report. 1,434,000 Americans filed unemployment claims and continued claims increased from 16,200,000 to 17,018,000 continued claims. While this is bad news for the economy it is good news for fixed mortgage rates.
GDP: To no one’s surprise this was a total disaster of a report. The biggest single decline in GDP ever – 32.9%. Since everyone was expecting this there was no impact on mortgage rates.

Wednesday – July 29th:

Mortgage Market Index: The overall Mortgage Market Index declined this week, from 848.8 to 841.9. Both Refinance applications and Purchase applications declined. During this time mortgage rates remain flat.
Pending Home Sales: The Pending Home Sales Index for June increased from 99.6 to 116.1.
FOMC Rate Decision: The Fed decides to keep rates the same and continues to say they will all they can to support the economy. Mortgage rates remained stable post-release.

Tuesday – July 28th:

Consumer Confidence: Last month the Consumer Confidence report came in at 98.1 and this month it came in at 92.6. There was no market reaction and mortgage rates were not impacted.

Monday – July 27th:

Durable Goods: The Durable Goods report (June) came in at 7.3 and the market was expecting a reading of 7.0. Last month the Durable Goods report came in at 15.7.

Friday – July 24th:

PMI Services: PMI Services came in at 49.6 which is better than last month’s report of 47.9.
New Home Sales: The New Home Sales report came in at an annual rate of 776,000 units for 2020. Last month the report came in at 676,000 units (annual run rate). The report had no impact on mortgage rates.

Thursday – July 23rd:

Weekly Jobless Claims: Claims came in at 1,416,000 jobless claims which should help keep mortgage rates low heading into next week (updated).
Last week the jobless claims number came in at 1,300,000 and the expectation for this week is another report showing 1,300,000 Americans filed for unemployment benefits. Continued claims are expected to come in at 17,100,000 continued claims. If we keep seeing these numbers as we move into August it will be a big concern for the economy going forward. If the claims were to return to 1.8 – 2.0 million claims I think you will see mortgage rates remain low for the foreseeable future.

Wednesday – July 22nd:

Mortgage Market Index: The Mortgage Market Index remains elevated and came in at 848.8 this week (last week it was 815.5). Purchase applications increased however the bigger move up was in refinance applications. Mortgage rates were not impacted by the report.
Existing Home Sales: Existing Home Sales came in flat with an annual rate of 4,720,000 units. Last month the annual rate was 4,780,000 units.

Thursday – July 16th:

Philly Fed Business Index: The Philly Fed Business Index declined from 27.5 last month to 24.1 this month.
Retail Sales: There was a huge decline in retail sales. Last month’s report came in at 17.7 and this month it came in at 7.5. The “good” news is the report was stronger than anticipated.
Weekly Unemployment Claims: The weekly unemployment claims continues to be an issue months after the economy began to reopen. This week’s report came in with 1,300,000 claims and continuing claims remained above 17,000,000. Mortgage rates remained steady post report as the bond market improved slightly.

Wednesday – July 15th:

Mortgage Market Index: Last week the Mortgage Market Index came in at 775.9 and this week it came in at 815.5. The Purchase Index declined from 325.2 to 305.4 however the Refinance Index increased from 3373.9 to 3774.3. Mortgage rates in California remained stable post report.

Tuesday – July 14th:

Consumer Price Index: The monthly Consumer Price Index report came in stronger than expected (0.6 vs 0.5). The report had no impact on mortgage rates in California. Annual Core CPI came in at 1.2% (vs expectations of 1.1%).

Friday – July 10th:

Core Producer Prices: Expectations for the Core Producer Prices index were for 0.4 however the report came in at 0.1.
Producer Prices: This report also disappointed as well coming in at a decline -0.2% when investors were expecting an increase.

Thursday – July 9th:

Weekly Unemployment Claims: Last week the unemployment claims report came in at 1,375,000 and this week it came in just below that (1,314,000). The fact that we’re still seeing weekly claims north of 1 million is troubling news for the economy. Continued claims remained north of 18,000,000.

Wednesday – July 8th:

Mortgage Market Index: The Mortgage Market Index increased from 758.9 to 775.9 with the 30-year fixed mortgage rate coming in at 3.26% (this is a national average). Fixed-rate mortgage loan programs in California are super attractive right now and at JBMC, Inc. we’re offering terms below the national average.
Consumer Credit: Consumer credit declined -18.28 billion dollars.

Monday – July 6th:

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Expectations were for 50.1 and the reading came in 57.1.

Thursday – July 2nd:

BLS Employment Report: Another blockbuster report where the economy created 4,767,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 11.1%. Keep in mind the last two reports were inflated (per BLS) and not accurate so we’ll have to see what the final numbers are later in the year. Earnings declined significantly (-1.2).
Weekly Jobless Claims: The weekly Jobless Claims report continues to be concerning with 1,427,000 people filing claims. This is just a bit lower than last week’s report of 1,480,000 claims. If the economy is open and on the path to recovery why are so many people still filing claims?

Wednesday – July 1st:

Mortgage Market Index: The Mortgage Market Index decreased from 773.1 to 758.9. Both the purchase and refinance index declined.
ADP Employment Report: According to the ADP Employment Report the economy added 2,369,000 jobs in June. Last month’s report showed 3,000,000 jobs created.
ISM Manufacturing: The ISM Manufacturing report moved back above 50 for the first time since March (52.6).

Mortgage Rates And The Monthly Jobs Report

Pre- COVID the monthly jobs report sometimes had a big impact on the direction of mortgage rates. July 2020 however is different.

After another big job report mortgage rates appear to remain stable heading into the three-day holiday weekend. That is good news for homeowners and homebuyers.

What might start impacting mortgage rates later this month is the weekly jobless claims report. With the economy open during the month of June and the economy supposedly improving we still had significantly high weekly jobless claims numbers.

Some people believe that if we continue to see 1 million-plus jobless claim reports in July and August that could have a long-term impact on the economy.

July 2020 Mortgage Rate Average In California

We’ll update this section as we move further into July however at the start of the month we’re seeing the following averages.

The average 30-year fixed rate in California is 3.125%.
The average 20-year fixed mortgage rate is 3.00%.
The average 15-year fixed rate in California is 2.75%.

This is an average of everyone we’re seeing; from less than perfect credit to excellent credit. Please keep in mind that July 2020 mortgage rates adjust daily; sometimes multiple times during a day. For a mortgage quote specific to your situation please be sure to contact us directly.

Mortgage-Backed Securities & Treasury Snapshot

July 27th – July 31st:

Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 2.0 started the week at the 102.92 level and the UMBS 2.5 coupon started at the 104.55 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the .58% level to start the week.

At the end of the week, Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 2.0 was at the 103.67 level and the UMBS 2.5 coupon was nearing the 105.14 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at .52%.

July 20th – July 24th:

Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 2.0 started the week at the 102.81 level and the UMBS 2.5 coupon started at the 104.44 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the .60% level to start the week.

At the end of the week, Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 2.0 was at the 102.84 level and the UMBS 2.5 coupon was nearing the 104.45 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at .58%.

July 13th – July 17th:

Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 2.0 started the week at the 102.70 level and the UMBS 2.5 coupon started at the 104.41 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the .62% level to start the week.

At the end of the week, Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 2.0 was at the 102.72 level and the UMBS 2.5 coupon was nearing the 104.41 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at .62%.

July 6th – July 10th:

Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 2.0 started the week at the 102.73 level and the UMBS 2.5 coupon started at the 104.48 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the .67% level to start the week.

At the end of the week, Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 2.0 was at the 102.30 level and the UMBS 2.5 coupon was nearing the 104.20 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at .64%.

July 1st – July 2nd:

Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 2.0 started the week at the 102.30 level and the UMBS 2.5 coupon started at the 104.20 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at the .67% level to start the week.

At the end of the week, Mortgage-Backed Security UMBS 2.0 was at the 102.30 level and the UMBS 2.5 coupon was nearing the 104.20 level. The 10y Treasury yield was at .70%.